BOZmail 28th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 28th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 113/159 = 71.06%  Backs : 32/99 = 32.32%

12-40 NEWBURY

Well I got Thursday wrong sure enough. Along with the market! He loved the ground. Saving grace was getting the early price. Can’t stress enough how important getting the best price is. Keep repeating myself I know. Hope you’ve got the message now. I’ll shut up about it next year!

Going small Saturday as part of profit protection after a lot of reverses really this month despite our best score of the year! Time to hang on to what we’ve won a bit I reckon.

Taking on Next Destination here on Chase debut. Nicholls’ horses often come on for their first run and although very good hurdle form, horse would probably prefer softer ground (heard that before!) and does take on two good ones in Hobbs’ Kalooki – who acts as our LIM cover cos I want a bet on Hold the Note who will come on for his first run behind Shan Blue and Snow Leopardess.Don’t need to say more about how that form has worked out! The form behind Imperial Aura and Galvin at Cheltenham is also pretty impressive. He represents excellent value here under Jonathan Burke.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on NEXT DESTINATION (around 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on HOLD THE NOTE (around 6.0)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous – Entered for the Stayers hurdle (Mar 18)

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Ayr (Nov 30)

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde – Entered for Newbury (Nov 28)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered for King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28) & Champion Hurdle

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) – Entered for Leicester (Nov 29) & Southwell (Dec 1)

Summerville Boy – Entered for the Stayers Hurdle (Mar 18)

Ga Law

Hitman

First Flow – Entered for Tingle Creek,Sandown (Dec 5)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on FRIDAY at Newbury:

1-15 Braveman’sgame @ 6/4 – 1st

2-25 Defi Sacre @ 10/1 – Fell

3-00 Mc Fabulous @ 5/2 – 3rd

         Summerville Boy @ 11/2 -4th

Usual BOZ luck as the one I had doubts about breezed in and poor old Defi who I claimed as the best jumper I’ve seen in recent years clouted two fences. Brilliantly survived the first but succumbed to the second when travelling like the winner to my eyes. Cruel luck. That’s jump racing for you! Thyme Hill retakes its place on the to follow list. That was some field he beat!

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-10 NEWBURY – MRS HYDE @ 9/4 – 0.5pt BACK

2-05 NEWCASTLE – RIBBLE VALLEY @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK

2-25 NEWBURY – PISGAH PIKE @ 18/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best prices you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are on offer.

Mrs Hyde is the day’s nap and I may well forego the trade on her and go straight back.

She does have to give weight all round and thus this is arguably her hardest task yet but she could not have been more impressive in beating Verdana Blue LTO albeit on ground the champ that wasn’t to be doesn’t handle. Beat For Pleasure the time before but of course that race also had excuses in it and form has arguably not held up that well. But you can only beat what is put in front of you and the manor of both wins has been exemplary. The time of the Kempton race was also mighty quick after the pace For Pleasure set.. Looks to me like the only way is up for her. Nicholls and Henderson throw in some untrieds to attempt the unseat but I’d say they have kept their powder dry knowing this is one they’ll struggle to get the better of.

So a good first leg for the treble. The other two are each way. I do fancy Ribble Valley but beating Epatante and Silver Streak is an ask and does have it to prove. Another who is mighty impressive in victory but the one poor run was when upped in class at Ascot last year when was disappointing. Ground was dreadful that day though and finished ahead of McFabulous so perhaps not as bad as it seemed. And winner did dictate before also disappointing thereafter. That race maybe has to have a line put through. Epatante gets the mares allowance though. That looks unfair to me! A Champion hurdler on bottom weight? No wonder she is odds on!

Pisgah Pike is a great price in a mega competitive race. May not be in same class as the Henderson fav but another whose attitude is terrific and who travels through races sublimely. Got an engine as they say. I fancy a good run again and LTO was better than it seems giving all that weight away. Gets a whack of weight in this. Very real each way chance.

So each way treble it is for me. 0.01pt = Total spend of 0.02pts

I will trade all three in singles with the caveat that I may just back Mrs Hyde as a nap and not bother to trade her back.Decision on that will be left until I see paddock watch.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

22nd:  – 0.174  (+3.092) Lay @ 2.16

23rd:   +0.6566 (+3.7486) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 3.8

24th:   -0.318  (+3.4306) Lay @ 2.06

25th:   +0.7984 (+4.229) Lay @ 1.9 : Back @ 13.0

26th:   NO BET

27th:   -0.315    (+3.914) Lay @ 3.1

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +50.4492points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.8168 points (+11.8168 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.5529 points (+40.5529 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2285 points (-0.7715 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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