It will come as no surprise to those who have kept in touch during lockdown, and the discussions we've been having, to hear that it is not expected that The Bozmail and LIM will quickly get back into its planned stride once UK racing resumes.
LIM, as you know, is designed for small field UK racing and to take advantage of races out of the bookmaker and sport promotion limelight – part of the heavy integrated racecards that are tradtionally run on a daily basis in the UK.
The 3 month revised (and much reduced) course schedule for resumption behind closed doors has been published now and scrutinised by the BOZ with the first eight days as listed below to start next Monday:
June 1 Newcastle
June 2 Kempton, Newcastle
June 3 Kempton, Yarmouth
June 4 Newcastle, Newmarket
June 5 Lingfield, Newmarket
June 6 Lingfield, Newcastle, Newmarket
June 7 Haydock, Lingfield, Newmarket
June 8 Chelmsford, Haydock, Lingfield
Entries for the first two days are now logged with on average 50 horses entered for each race! No surprise really and the chances of that leading to a qualifying LIM criteria race of six runners or less is very slim. But we shall see…..
No NH fixtures in the first couple of weeks of resumption and in truth, only fixtures at Bath (first meet on June 11th) and Royal Ascot (June 16th – 20th) would traditionally fit the course criteria the BOZ uses ideally for his daily tipping during June. So even more patience is looking likely to be asked of us. We saw with attempts at substituting overseas racing in April and May that the same level of performance cannot be guaranteed in these revised circumstances and everything points to approaching the whole business extremely cautiously until we see a return to the sort of situation LIM and the BOZmail was designed for.
The fixture list does suggest that that may be July once NH racing returns although as with everything at the moment, nothing is certain and it will be a case of sucking and seeing as we go along for the forseeable future. The Boz has some concerns after watching US, Australian and French racing closely behind closed doors over the past weeks that the psychology of the no crowd and muted prize givings does also alter the dynamic. Form study and race reading has new factors to be built in and there will be no gung ho betting here until we are sure we have a handle on this here NEW NORMAL!
With all this in mind, it has been decided that the plan going forward is thus. The 2020 BOZmail – Part 1 – from February 1st until May 31st – is having a line drawn under it. The small profits made are being banked and we will start afresh with the 2020 BOZmail – Part 2 – as soon as it feels that the new normal is settled and fully understood. That may be as early as July 1st. Or whenever it looks likely that a daily LIM can be expected again. When the avalanche of entries for every race subsides.
Meantime in June, I will be compiling and publshing the shortlist selections every day for all meetings taking place. This will be a litmus test exercise. I know from over 20 years of observing shortlist results at all UK tracks what to expect in the ways of strike rates at each track and it is expected that any anomalies I need to be aware of before serious tipping again will show up therein. I will do a commentary each day on what has occurred and because you will have had shortlist selections posted in advance each day you will be able to watch the races and me at work in my litmus test exercise. There may be tips that emerge as we go on through the month and you will be able to decide for yourself whether you get involved with betting or waiting for the LIM green light before you start betting again. As I say, that is provisionally expected to be on July 1st although we do have Bath and Royal Ascot fixtures in June and as premier shortlist tracks that regular shortlist followers will know past records are very reliable at, we may well start betting during those days. But cautiously even there. Royal Ascot behind closed doors has to change things. It simply has to. How, we might only know by watching. I can guess. But I'm not betting on guesses. I will be able to tell after Day 1 of the shortlist at Royal Ascot whether results are as normal or not. And I will tell you.Before then at Bath on June 11th and hopefully before then during this first eight day period all taking place at non Premium shortlist tracks.
I think I know what I am expecting but until I see it, I cannot be sure. As soon as I am. I will divulge and a new betting plan for the 2020 BOZmail will be made.
All of this was unforseen of course when annual subscriptions was promoted and likewise when the shortlist add on extra was devised. Both Part 1 of the BOZmail and the 6 shortlist fixtures we got before lockdown showed enough profit to cover purchase costs so hopefully everybody feels ok with the concept still going to be adhered to that the 2020 subscription continues for the same period it was designed for in terms of daily racing. Six weeks of the planned ten months have already gone through. So another eight and a half months of safe normal LIM betting will occur before a new cycle starts. That may be March 1st 2021 or later depending on how long this disruption goes on for and how we cope with it.
Everything may of course be enhanced by the New Normal. Depends how quick we adapt!
You may rest assured that the BOZ is on the case and will be talking you through for the next month at least to the best of his ability!
Any questions,observations or concerns. You know where to contact: