BOZmail – 28th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MARCH 28th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

4-20 WARWICK

Good example of LIM value yesterday as we got almost SP win price in profit on Lady Camelot whilst also having Imperial Elixir on our side at same price and coming over the last, I thought Paddy Brennan was going to be in the mix. Excellent riding by all three jockeys I thought and a good finish to watch with the weight just proving enough to bring our 11th winning day from last 12 and a tad closer the double figure profit score for the month which is always a target. Four days to go and although I’ll be taking no risks, I’ve also got my eye on achieving doubling of bank which I also like to achieve by end of month four or thereabouts. You’ll see a % upping of stake once we have that winnings bank to dip into.

Steady as she goes on Thursday though and a Hunter Chase featuring a horse we know and have already played successfully twice in this cycle – both for and against in Risk a Fine.

I’m against once more here as Marinero takes a drop in class, ought to be suited more to the shorter distance and has arguably better form and times than Risk a Fine based on an effort at Ascot going back a few runs. Stable also firing well with a 100% over past 14 days with horses running to form. I always take heart from that stat.  

There is also LIM cover again from Brave Jaq who would be just below the front two class wise but won well enough LTO and does get a couple of pounds which might be very influential over this shorter hunt trip. Speed could come to the fore and he is no forlorn hope in that sphere.

All in all not a mega day and I take a modest lay on Risk a Fine as my play.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on RISK A FINE (around 2.5 ; no greater than 3.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

24th:    +0.596(+8.5245) LAY @ 2.5 : BACK @ 4.02

25th:    +0.24 (+8.7645) LAY @ 1.99

26th:     +0.09 (+8.8545) LAY @ 4.4 : BACK @ 4.2

27th:     +0.539(+9.3935) LAY @ 1.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 74/103 = 71.84% :   BACKS: 17/66 = 25.75%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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