BOZmail – 28th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY JUNE 28th  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-55 CARTMEL

The Newcastle winner was one of those you couldn’t pick or back with a bargepole. Well I couldn’t have anyway! First time out for new trainer over new distance in a handicap.Well yeh, on those factors and if you could work out the rest were as rubbish as they proved. Again, not me. Still wouldn’t back it even though I now know it wins! LIM however shows a profit. A better indication of its strengths than Wednesday even.

Back to the jumps on Friday. In my backyard and in the presence of Sir Cliff Richard who is on stage after the last. Women attending have been asked not to throw their underwear on stage. Zimmer frames however are ok! My sister-in-law is flying in from Spain for it. She first saw him live 50 years ago!

The beginners chase is where my attention will be focused. Ennistown has a good trainer/jockey combination but is far from a shoo in here and will need to improve his chase form shown to date.Squouateur and Sonic are both live dangers and with similar improvements could also win but I take a punt here on a horse I followed last year. Francky Du Berlais came onto my radar beating Captain Peacock at Worcester showing good late turn of foot and creditable tenacity. Captain Peacock proved a good horse and Francky has been lightly raced in higher grade since, running reasonably well. Takes a step back down for his Chase debut and it comes down to that. I don’t always like first time out in a Chase bets. Like to see that they can jump first. So they are often lays as favs but this is value at 9/2 and is a strapping chaser type under the care of Peter Bowen who farms this race and likes winners at Cartmel generally. James Bowen up for the ride too and all bodes well to put in a good one. Similar type of punt to the one we had on Nietzsche at the start of the month.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on ENNISTOWN (around 3.0 : no greater than 3.6)

0.15pt BACK on FRANCKY DU BERLAIS

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

              — Whole race played as trade– 

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

20th:    +0.294(+2.413) Lay @ 1.33

21st:   +0.3757(+2.7887) Back @ 2.12 : 

            — Whole match played as a two horse back trade —

22nd:   +0.184 (+2.9727) Back @ 1.94 

23rd:    +0.145 (+3.1177) Lay @ 3.65 : Back @ 3.65

24th:     BET VOIDED

25th:     -0.195 (+2.9227) Lay @1.78

26th:     +2.745(+5.6677) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @26.0

27th:     +0.145(+5.8127) Lay @ 2.36 : Back @ 3.65

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 116/173 = 67.05% :   BACKS: 31/113 = 27.43%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise – Entered at Newmarket (June 29)

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.4444 points.

Staggered acca number 12: (LEG 3)

(LEG 2) Angelique Kerber to beat Simona Halep @ 1/1 – WON

Just wrote my Wimbledon preview in which I stated that Kerber’s current form would go against her chance of retaining her title. Gonna have to rewrite that! Seriously scintillating here and the forehand stab (and sometimes slap) has notable venom these days kept so low. Lots of opponents gonna struggle with that. Suddenly her Wimbledon price is attractive.

Was initially going to go straight into leg three with Kiki Bertens to beat Karolina Pliskova in the Eastbourne semis but I watched both their quarter finals today and have gone off the play. Not grade A enough. I was lead to believe Bertens’ improvement this year had transferred to grass (traditionally a clay specialist) but not so to my eyes. Her ground strokes v Sabalenka were indifferent and she will be floor wiped by Kerber. Pliskova also won her semi easily and does have back form on grass and at Eastbourne so with Bertens relying on a serve that was misfiring on occasion today too, the back form – which was only marginally in Bertens’ favour anyways – has become unsound to my judgement. 

Kerber appeals in the other semi but she is 2/9 and should win against a Jabeur who played superb in her quarter v Cornet but fell and twisted an ankle near the end and had to be strapped. Although entertaining to watch, she wouldn’t live with an in form Kerber anyways. Value v an out of form Kerber but no way is Kerber out of form on today’s evidence. I might even have suggested a bet on Kerber at 2/9 but the thing staying me there is that Jabeur is a serious wildcat. She could just surprise the German and get her out of comfort zone. Don’t like taking 2/9 anytime but especially when there is a nagging doubt. I probably like Jabeur too much  and overestimate her but when in doubt, no bet.

The staggered acca can always wait for another day. Saturday’s final or the Wimbledon early rounds. 

Will shout as soon as the next leg emerges.   

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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