BOZmail – 28th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JUNE 28th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.5577 points (-0.4423 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.121 points (+5.121 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.89 points (-0.11 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.0997 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 9/15 = 60%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

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LESS IS MORE: 

3-20 NEWMARKET

Saturday’s Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on BAL MAL 

Laid @ 1.8 : Hedged before the off 0.25pt @2.1 : P/L = +0.0343 points

Saturday was a working trade day. Some of you don’t like it I know and I won’t be sticking to it forever. Several of you are converts though and I’m not surprised. It don’t make you rich and it lacks the excitement of gambling but in the consistent accumulation of profit, it ticks a lot of boxes. I’ve thought for a couple of years now of giving gambling up. 

At the end of the day however, gambling always draws you back in. I keep trading as my tool to ensure avoidance of losses. Still working on that LIM deficit. Three days still to go and more to choose from again on Sunday. Saturday’s was the meanest profit of the lot so I look to do better on Sunday. Made a few mistakes in my assessment on Saturday not least that the rain made no difference to the fav. But the market told us the score and the ante-post trade was already in the bag when the money poured on. Sit and take that one on the chin. Profit is a profit.

I’ve chosen to lay Ascension on Sunday who with Monoski comes back down in trip to try to rectify recent defeats. Short at 11/8 stroke 5/4 which looks his likely and I’ll lay at that with the expectation of a decent hedge at higher along the way. Buhturi my idea of the winner but I play to continue the reparation here and keep to the trade.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on ASCENSION (around 2.4 or lower if you can get it to be hedged when preferential odds occur)

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3655*) Lay @ 1.66 * arithmetic mistake corrected

13th: -0.24     (-0.6055) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8215) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2295) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3195) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2147) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

22nd: +0.0784 (-1.1363) Lay @ 2.12 : Backs @ 2.4 & 3.15

23rd:  +0.049  (-1.0873) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @ 2.5

24th:  +0.106  (-0.9813) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 3.2

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.5047 (-0.4766) Lay @ 2.34 : Backs @ 3.2 & 11.0

27th:  +0.0343 (-0.4423) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 2.1

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (June 30) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Jaganory – Entered for Bath (July 2)

Waseem Faris

TO FOLLOW TRADE FOR SATURDAY:

3-00 NEWCASTLE – VIRGIN SNOW @ 9/2 : 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 3.73 (5.5 before the withdrawal of Aloe Vera) :

Hedged @ 2.34 before the off @ & @ 1.4 in running : P/L = +0.245 points

Pretty easy trade in the ante-post despite the defection of Aloe Vera reducing my 5.5 to 3.73. Virgin Snow was well backed and thus easy to hedge back leaving a +0.3475 profit on the win going in to the race. Decided to do a grass growing level up in running if there was any doubt about the Virgin Snow win and Marquand didn’t look a definite to come past on the second fav giving all that weight but I took no chances and got 1.4 on Virgin Snow with her head still in front but working hard a half furlong out.  Another of the better trades. Virgin Snow ran another fine race and stays on the list doing that against her elders. Class filly.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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