BOZmail 28th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JULY 28th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.88 points (+0.88 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.2893 points (+6.2893 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.8553 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.1429 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 31/40 = 77.5%  Backs : 3/16 = 18.75%

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LESS IS MORE: 

NO BET

Dunno about you but that felt like winning the Grand National to me. The old LIM feeling has been creeping back slowly and that was the first to cause a rush of blood. The market suggested I might have got Lough Har wrong (although Arthur did have some confidence in him as well) and two out, I was starting to think they knew more than me but then the point to point plod and the less than slick jumping that I saw in his form manifested itself and Arthur was able to overcome the class deficiency and weight penalty and fought his jolly old heart out on our behalf. And good on him!

The race obviously featured lock down factor as well as Sporting Press also had my hackles up early jumping like a stag to half way and being handled by a jockey I put more or less in the Bryony class (potentially anyway) and I thought for a moment the late drift that allowed some 16.0 was gonna bring us a much needed winner.

Was seriously knackered by the end and lost third but reduced in distance and fit, I think Sporting Press represents a horse to follow. Has form behind one of the BOZmail stars of last season – Defi Sacre – and he comes back on the to follow along with a couple of my other heroes from last year – Captain Zebo and Lady Bowes (running the Bangor bumper on Wednesday!). Dunno about you but the NH over the past five days has really brought me back to life. Second half of the year is underway.

And we celebrate with a day off! Absolutely sod all LIM wise for Tuesday. Couldn’t even find a trade. We have an O’Brien Ascot winner to trade at Goodwood and that’s it. Serious Less is More! After that however, none stop National Hunt until Xmas. And a glorious month of women’s tennis only a moonshine away.

And if you’re feeling chipper and like a footy punt, consider Laying Brentford in the Championship play offs. I’m a Baggies fan so was watching Albion keenly all season and it was Brentford who were putting the heebies up us threatening to derail our automatic promotion spot. They fluffed it final day in a classic against relegation escapees Barnsley whilst play off opposition Swansea pulled the almighty goal swing turnaround to keep Forest out of the play-offs. All the momentum with the Swans and they won the first leg 1-0 last night. Betting favours Brentford at home in the second leg but the BOZ says home advantage is worth diddly squat in football at the moment with no crowds. Brentford are staying down. 3.35 lay to so do and although I’m not making it an official play, long term BOZmailers know they’m the best bets I give!

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

23rd:  +0.098   (+0.774) Lay @ 2.26

24th:   -0.27     (+0.504) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 5.0

25th:   +0.0882(+0.5922) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 6.6

26th:   +0.147  (+0.7392) Lay @ 2.7

27th:    +0.098 (+0.8272) Lay @ 2.4 : Back at 14.5

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for Goodwood (July 29) & York (Aug 20) 

Malotru 

English King – Entered for Goodwood (July 30) & Doncaster (Sep 12)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

TO FOLLOW TRADE HORSE ON TUESDAY:

2-15 GOODWOOD – BATTLEGROUND @ 11/8 – 0.5pt BACK

Ultimately the market will tell us whether they expect Battleground to handle the funny old stick of a course that is Goodwood. I expect there to be money for the O’Brien horse from this point and for a while with that Chesham run being super impressive and on breeding this is as close to a perfect racehorse as you could get.

The price might drift later though so get in early around the 11/8 and hedge as soon as you get offered preferential odds. Not aiming to make much personally as this is one of those guesswork picks again regards the flat and on the track. There is some real live opposition to the O’Brien horse in Devious Company whose form is actually superior so far. Battleground however could be a real live O’Brien horse (he looks it on paper and with how he moved at Ascot) who could improve and improve and if the money’s down, he’ll win! 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden 

Lord Condi – Entered for Bangor (July 29) & Southwell (July 30)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure – Entered for Bangor (July 29) & Southwell (July 30)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love

Lady Bowes – Entered for Bangor (July 29) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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