BOZmail – 28th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY JANUARY 28th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

4-00 LUDLOW

Fontwell didn’t let me down and must admit I do feel a bit more like back in the LIM bubble now that the tennis is complete. Samantha emailed to say she reckoned it was no co-incidence that LIM form dipped whilst the tennis was on and busy distracting my attention. I hear what you are saying Samantha and have wondered about that before. Is it a case of sacrificing quality to achieve quantity? The very antithesis of Less is More philosophy. Hard to be sure although I must confess Samantha puts a compelling case backed up by three years of stats all of which show LIM dips whilst the tennis is on. Vaguely aware of this, I had initially intended putting up tennis LIMs during OZ fortnight when planning this new version of The BOZmail but shied away in the end with previous attempts to narrow down to one tennis LIM bet per day proving less successful than horse racing stats. Samantha disputes this and I am busy checking her stats with mine. At first sight looks like she might have a case and I’ll certainly be keeping this in mind to revisit before deciding what I do come the French Open in May. If you have any thoughts, feel free to communicate them via the BLWM channels or direct to my email; garyboswell@hotmail.com

The BOZmail has always sought to provide a portfolio approach to tipping so that if one strand is misfiring, another can be compensating. But I also have trimmed down for 2019 in a conscious attempt to specialise more with LIM the cornerstone of that.

Workload is a consideration as I start to age. I figured I’d improve scores the less I posted. That is also consistent with fundamental LIM philosophy. Will continue pondering and feel free to chip in to the debate.

Meanwhile on to trying to get another LIM laying run under way building on Sunday’s effort. I have looked at both the Ludlow qualifiers aswell as one at Kempton and two at Wolverhampton and although I like the 1-30 Kempton, I am bothered by the wind op factor of taking on On The Blind Side and so keep coming back here to Mistress Massini who has been posted up odds on in the early tissue. No penalty kick this time after being allowed to run LTO at Catterick without a penalty and thus scared away all decent opposition and was able to canter in unchallenged. Be a different ball game here with 10lb extra to carry despite the weight received from a field of infinitely better quality opponents. Smuggler’s Blues has potential after a debut run in better class Chase company where he was quite significantly hampered on the way round and can be expected to be much more competitive down in class here. Should benefit from step up in trip being out of Yeats and has a striking point to point time win on his card that ought to make him competitive here. That said, Market Road,Hey Bill and Huff and Puff present the main challenge and all three hold times that make it a close contest between the three and Mistress Massini. Nothing in my figures to suggest MM should be odds on.

I take Hey Bill from the very in form Graeme McPherson yard as a value win back. Comes down in class following a challenging winter campaign so far which has nevertheless seen improvement each run (can be forgiven first run of season after long break and delayed start because of weather) and is thus back now at his winning mark from April in which he posted a competitive time in the context of this race. At this track and won in the stewards room after beaten a nose following considerable interference on the run to the line. Take that bumping out and the time would have been even better in a surefire winner he was stopped from achieving. As it was, beaten only a nose in a better class of race than this.Has to give lumps of weight to Mistress Massini but I would say has the class to do so and is very much value at the price of around 9/1.  

Recommendation:

0.45pt LAY on MISTRESS MASSINI

0.1pt BACK on HEY BILL

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 38/50 = 76% : BACKS: 7/31 = 22.58%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin – Entered for Newcastle (Jan 29)

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Plumpton (Jan 30)

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 2)

 

Awaiting the weapons grade selection to follow on from Leg 1. Will shout as soon as it appears

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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