BOZmail 28th FEBRUARY

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 28th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-45 TAUNTON

Strong correct call for Wednesday giving me confidence to have a bit more of a go at the final LIM for February. A race I like the look of and chosen from a real plethora of possibles for Thursday. The lay is Whoshotwho – went up as short as 5/4 in the early tissue but evened out at 7/4. I’d get on asap at that because a further drift looks possible tomorrow as the horse has various negatives to its chance. Jockey STD chooses to go to Ludlow for a better short fav (who I also looked at opposing) leaving Tom O’Brien in charge and we saw him on Tuesday as not really top drawer. Newland stable also out of kilter at the moment and although WSW comes down in class here, has developed jumping issues and also not looking nailed on to stay the extended distance either. Weakened final two furlongs on only previous effort. Not my idea of a strong fav.

Hurricane Dylan much more likely to appreciate the distance and will be good cover but has penalty for win LTO to shoulder (that puts him equal with the fav on my figures) and so is not my back to win the race. That I entrust to Alan King’s Bastien who is first time in a handicap but brings the races best form to the table from his time behind Bags Groove – at Huntingdon on Dec 9th – who has franked the form again since. Looks a value bet to end the month with. The Nicholls horse also provides cover as a possible improver and is one for all darts fans to shout for. Ditcheat still very much a stable on the up in its run up to Cheltenham.

So a positive LIM to end the month but not going too gung ho stakewise with the desire still not to risk a negative outcome for the month. Once out of February and into March we can afford to be more adventurous and/or bullish with bookmakers lolly accumulated but caution remains ever the watchword even on positive days like these.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on WHOSHOTWHO (at around 2.8:no greater than 3.25)

0.1pt BACK on BASTIEN (around 6.0)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 54/76 = 71.05% :   BACKS: 11/49 = 22.44%

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.9375 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Parlour Maid

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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