BOZmail 28th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY DECEMBER 28th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/180 = 68.88%  Backs : 36/115 = 31.30%

NO BET

I didn’t expect FF to have to come from behind but they knew how best to try and get him beat and all credit to a seriously gutsy customer who took my mini losing streak and yanked it out from the deep drowning waters! Good on him. I think he may have spent his time on the To Follow list now but I’ll keep him on a tad longer out of sheer gratitude!

Had two LIMs I liked lined up for Monday both now casualties of the British weather and abandoned racing. Shortlisters should also note that the abandonment of Fontwell concludes the 2020 programme which will take a short breather now as we see out the 2020 season in the January extension. Plans for that still being formed and more news on that in days ahead. Full service should be back in kilter for Tuesday with a couple of bets at Newbury in the melting pot.

Day off Monday with the winning habit modestly resumed!

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount – Entered for Wetherby (Dec 27)

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame – Entered for Newbury (Dec 29) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 19)

Young Wolf – Entered for Newbury (Dec 29)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar RoseEntered for  Cheltenham (Mar 19)

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line – Entered at Market Rasen (Dec 30)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered at Wetherby (Dec 27)

Get Your Own -Entered for Market Rasen (Dec 30)

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Allart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 18)

Nube Negra

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

3-20 PARRAMOUNT @ 4/1 -0.25pt BACK -2nd

Backed @ 5.1 : hedged 0.125pt @ 2.67 & 0.5pt @ 1.35 : P/L = +0.3675pt

An almost identical play to Snow Leopardess yesterday and the late price drift before the off gave us a lot to play with. Always travelling well as expected meant easy hedges coming into the long straight with only Nicholls’ fav to worry about. 50-50 which of the two and I went conservative 0.5pt lay at 1.5 (matched at 1.35) as hopeful we were going slightly better. Still had a healthy +0.6+ on the win but Nicholls’ not surprisingly showed the better acceleration. Healthy trade winning weekend to make up for low to middling LIM form! 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

20th:     -0.278   (+0.7186) Lay @ 2.52 : Back @ 4.9

21st:     NON RUNNER

22nd:    -0.162   (+0.5566) Lays @ 2.9 & 2.52 : Backs @ 6.4 & 9.2

26th:     -0.253   (+0.3036) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 6.4

27th:    +0.147   (+0.4506) Back @ 2.5

28th:      NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +57.6941points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.8214 points (+12.8214 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 54.8332 points (+46.8332 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1885 points (-0.8115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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