BOZmail – 28th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY DECEMBER 28th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +18.4752 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +70.335 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-00 NEWBURY

I was in conversation with several regarding the ‘getting best price you can’ directiveon Friday’s play which I published early with what proved to be an inaccurate tissue guide price so that my upper value parameter was lower than it needed to be. I told those who mailed in – a few still claiming to be bewildered by the getting best price you can aspect – that 3.0 was a better upper value parameter once bookmakers prices were out and I am assuming that experienced LIM players worked that out for themselves. If that is an incorrect assumption however do let me know.

In any event, not much below 3.0 ever became available and you had to be watching to get it. If you took higher at around the 3.35 average you had a few hairy moments if you didn’t hedge back as Tarada did struggle a bit with the loose horse before landing the race read. Coole Hall travelled awfully first circuit however and was only ever going to win if the other two fell. Those who took the 3.35 easily levelled out if they so wished at around 11.0 which was available several times in running.

And thus is LIM and trading in general and if you are still finding it bewildering, never fear. It does get better with practice I promise you. I have published a few thoughts and tips below to help those still new to it or struggling therewith. Most important thing to remember is that in early days you are best to remember that nobody else’s play (including mine) is of any interest to you. The only thing that matters is your own. Concentrate on that. Getting them the best that you can over time is the only concern in this game. It is where winning in the long term comes from. Developing your own skill. Having to rely on no-one else. Eventually after enough watching how tipsters race read, it is possible to cut us out too! That’s what being a good tipster is. Becoming ultimately redundant! That at least is the World According to BOZ. Perhaps not all tipsters would agree. There are those in it to screw as much as they can from their customers so I’m told. Surely not!!

Post Xmas fare is proving quite thin soup this year but just how it goes. We had our golden spell pre-Xmas perhaps this year. Time to pare down and take what we have won is perhaps upon us as we are faced with a couple of skinny priced to follow shots over the weekend and not a huge monthly profit to reinvest.Time to exercise that most important of virtues – content with one’s lot. He who gets greedy and chases moolah that ain’t there is sure to come a cropper! So it is for us for the rest of 2019 I fancy although I shall be seeking a corker in the LIMs on Monday and Tuesday. If there is one there to be found, rest assured I shall snuffle it out!

Meanwhile the weekend duo. Both short priced backs from the to follow list. Thyme Hill first in the Challow Hurdle. Top class gelding who finished third in last year’s champion bumper and has been battle hardy in both runs over timber getting a champ’s ride and not up much in class here. Neither is Enrilo though who is a live danger and The Cashel Man was also an easy winner in a handicap LTO and under the guidance of the master trainer, he is the value. No value in Thyme Hill and sticking to the to follow’s at odds on is not my favourite activity and didn’t work out well with Ribble Valley. Find myself unable to desert the really good ones though and Thyme Hill looks that. Staking down in profit protection mode as a result of the dangers.

Recommendation:

0.25pt BACK on THYME HILL ( around 1.9 or best price you can get)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 217/325 = 66.76% :   BACKS: 57/216 = 26.38%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

9th:    -0.2275(+0.1905) Lay @ 1.91

10th:   +0.245 (+0.4355) Lay @3.35

11th:    +0.047 (+0.4825) Lay @ 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

12th:    NON RUNNER

13th:    +0.294 (+0.7765) Lay @ 2.86

14th:    +0.147 (+0.9235) Lay @ 1.8

15th:    +0.4555 (+1.379) Lay @ 2.44 : Back @ 3.25

16th:    +0.294 (+1.673) Lay @ 4.0

17th:    +0.196 (+1.869)  Lay @ 2.88

18th:    +0.096 (+1.965) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 9.0

19th:    RACE ABANDONED

20th:     -0.33 (+1.635) Backs @ 2.02 & 12.0

21st:     +0.096 (+1.731) Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 11.0

26th:     -0.67 (+1.061)  Lay @ 3.85 : Back @ 4.4

27th:     +0.49 (+1.551) Lay @ 2.98

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Kaizer* 

Tea Clipper* 

Nube Negra – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 10)

Black Op – Entered for RSA,NOVICES & Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Doncaster (Dec 29) & Arkle (Mar 10)

Wenceslaus* 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Supreme Novices,Ballymore & Albert Bart 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa* 

Vinndication –Entered for Cheltenham Gold Cup

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Ryanair & Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10)

Magic of Light

Defi Sacre – Entered for  Kelso (Dec 29)

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE at CHEPSTOW on FRIDAY:

1-35 – NORDANO @ 22/1 – 0.05pt BACK on the Each Way market. – 3rd 

(Backed @ 34.0 ) = P/L +0.175 points

Didn’t get chance to see this race live but Bryony rode a corker without ever having chance to win. A rare successful each way fixed odds bet for The Boz! Well done if you achieved better.BSP on the place market was probably best way to go with hindsight.

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE at NEWBURY on SATURDAY:

1-15 DEFI SACRE @ 2/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Another horse I don’t want to desert but this may be going to the well a tad too often however. Trusting the bang in form Richard Hobson knows what he’s doing and the form was boosted on Boxing Day. This half brother to Sprinter Sacre could be the real deal so he’s a to follow til he gets beat type. Probably won’t be trading this unless price drifts and I get much better than 2/1

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Tips to help achieve ‘getting best possible price’ aspect of LIM plays and trading plays:

There is really no substitute for practice and experience. Market watching is an art all of its own and the appreciation of the correct moment to place the bet comes as an instinct over time. There are however a few pointers to help those attempting the practice for the first time.

1/ Always remember that the only thing that matters is the result you achieve yourself. Try not to get involved in comparing your scores with those of others. Concentrate instead on learning from your experience analyzing what you did right and wrong each play and building this knowledge into your arsenal going forward.

2/ There is an icon to the left of the horse’s name on both Betfair and Betdaq that enables you to track all trades on that horse for both record keeping purposes (useful to know after the event what the best price you could have achieved was) and for decision making on whether now is the best time to go in or not.

3/ Best time to go in of course depends on many factors and ultimately the skill of ‘smelling the right time’ becomes an instinct you develop from reading market changes and what causes them. Stable money the most obvious one but we ourselves are also a factor. Tipping agencies sweet on a horse are sure to reduce its price nine times out of ten. Paddock watch changes I especially look for these days. Don’t happen until ten to fifteen minutes before the off of course.

4/ Determining a value price before you begin is many traders’ preference and this is good early practice as much for ensuring that you don’t take silly prices as for determining what best price will be. Ultimately best price is decided by the market. Your skill whether or not you achieve it.

5/ Many traders use the incremental method of getting their stake on in stages and taking the average as the price they achieved. Useful tool in early days although ultimately something you will want to improve on.There is however no substitute for backing an unexpectedly advantageous price if it is offered. If it takes you over your stake limit (because you are already on to full stake)remember that you may be able to hedge the extra back later to both bring your stake back down to recommended and improve your average trading price achieved. Both are important but only you can decide how much so.

6/ Be happy with what you achieve but always be striving for better. Basic psychology that applies to much more than just playing LIM!

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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