BOZmail – 28th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY THREE:

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 28th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +8.6302 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

US OPEN SECOND ROUND MATCH:

Johanna Konta v Margarita Gasparyan

Day One finished not so bad despite the losses with 3/6 correct and much better on Day Two as I stand 4/4 (one levelled out green trade) with a good treble up if Suarez Navarro holds her nerve.

Goerges saved match point and disproved my oldies are unreliable moan about Kerber yesterday. Only one way to seriously make money backing tennis at the moment though. Trade the Ostapenko matches! Doesn’t matter who she plays or whether she is fav or not. Every match a rollercoaster. I only ever backed and laid Krunic throughout the match but it took some concentrating on and I earned my plus. Hope you enjoyed if you are getting into it. Has given me hope of a good end to August after all! 

Riske did me proud staying firm after getting outclassed first set. Muguruza then got all hardcourt brittle and chucked the mental towel in. Funny sort of champion she is. Just seems not up for the fight half the time. Goerges could teach her some stuff. She seriously had to knuckle down today to win. Served her way to the final set tie break massacre.

So a bit more confidence as I attack day three with five outsiders I considered for LIM.

McNally is very exciting at 11.0 v Serena but will probably need the experience. Lin Zhu is big at 7.2 to beat Keys but ought really be outclassed.Peterson might beat Yastremska and if Van Uytvanck overcomes her dislike for hardcourt, she could be value v Qiang Wang but I’m changing tack slightly for day three. My daily fav treble is a banker double to start the final staggered acca off. See below.

And I won’t be posting any against the book trades from the above mentioned. I’ll be watching and enjoying with two of Tuesday’s still to do tonight. Gonna spend a day sitting on my winnings! Don’t let me put you off if you are still practising trading however and the above four could all be fun to minimum starting stakes.

I’m going all LIM disciplined however and picking just one of my fancied outsiders to play with. Konta v Gasparyan is the match up I know most about.

You’ll be thinking I have something against Konta which I don’t really. Have often done the patriotic rooting bit but do find her a tad one dimensional and occasionally brittle a la Muguruza. She oft disappoints at the tight end as well and had her moments of downtime first round before asserting the power serve which is at its best on hardcourt. Hard to oppose in that mode. Two reasons to take her on here though.

One is price. At 1.26, she is ultra short. Too short. Next to no liability at the modest stakes I’m playing at to keep August score tight. And she could win because Gasparyan does have perennial knee problems. And chronic ones too. Carried off in agony when beating Svitolina at Wimbledon you may remember. So she’s no good thing of a bet. Value however because in class terms she outstrips Konta. A seriously silky forehand that Konta can only dream of and a speed of cross courter that will have Jo leaden footed and quickly dispirited if the Russian brings her A game. There is an if because she hasn’t done it that often in her career so far. At 24, spent more time injured than playing and is thus learning at a slower rate than you’d like as well.

Better on hardcourt than grass however and if she brings that class of game she was playing against Svitolina here, she’ll wipe Konta out. So at the prices, gotta play. 

Recommendations:

0.5pt LAY on JOHANNA KONTA v Gasparyan (around 1.26 : no greater than 1.4)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

24th:          NON RUNNER

25th:          +0.045 (+1.1875) Lay @ 1.89 : Backs @ 20.0 & 6.6

26th:           -0.268 (+0.9195) Lay @ 1.67

27th:           +0.294 (+1.2135) Lay @ 1.74

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 151/226 = 66.81% :   BACKS: 44/154 = 28.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: (LEGS 1 &2)

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 2nd ROUND MATCHES on WEDNESDAY:

Karolina MUCHOVA to beat Su-Wei HSIEH @ 1.77 

Petra MARTIC to beat Ana Bogdan @ 1.49

Combined odds double = 2.6373 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt

Two bankers for Wednesday so a go to get the staggered acca deficit back and set us up for one last free bet staggered acca go in 2019 before I switch codes on the sheet for the Autumn and Winter.

Both of these have to win. Back them in a double. Both grade A. Muchova is the new Czech star who made QF at Wimbledon and is a hard court thumper out of the top drawer. Tricky as Hsieh is, she hadn’t ought to be able to live with Muchova who has a 1-0 back score on the surface already. Hsieh prefers grass. Bogdan is on the improve but way outranked by Martic who has found herself this year and become a reliable battler. Should be a class issue and prices are sound for both. Fingers and toes crossed. This goes down, I wave the 2019 white flag of staggered acca surrender! 

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA (laid at 6.4) 

0.25pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK at (backed at 200.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 180.0)

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF(backed at 85.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 55.0) 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN (backed at 67.0  – 0.25pt laid @30.0)

0.25pt BACK on DANIELLE COLLINS(backed at 250.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 210.0)

Good starts by Swiatek & Kenin. The unreliable oldie couldn’t dislodge Serena. The whirlwind of young McNally up next!

US OPEN FIRST DAY FAV TREBLE:

Catherine McNally to beat Timea Bacsinszky @ 1.54 – WON

Angelique Kerber to beat Krystina Mladenovic @ 1.3 – LOST

Maria Sakkari to beat Camila Giorgi @ 1.57 – WON

Mmm. Bit miffed about that. Youngster good things prevailed and old unreliable slam champ let the side down. Should have known. Lesson learned. Stick with the young and the hungry!

                       Composite odds around 3.1431 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt – LOST

SECOND DAY FAV TREBLE:

Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Timea Babos @ 1.69

Belinda Bencic to beat Mandy Minella @ 1.13 – WON

Julia Goerges to beat Natalie Vikhlyantseva @ 1.43 – WON

                         Composite odds around 2.7308 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt

US OPEN FIRST DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES:  

Lin Zhu to beat Xi Wang @ 2.56 – WON – no chance or need to hedge

Eugenie Bouchard to beat Anastasia Sevastova @ 4.6 – LOST – no chance to hedge

Only decent and positive first day result. Level stakes profit from the two as would be required. No trading on either. Simply fixed odds bets as turned out but more grist to the seek value mill. Bouchard it would seem is doomed never to regain her thread.

US OPEN SECOND DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES: 

Pauline Parmentier to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 3.05

Sorana Cirstea to beat Kateryna Siniakova @ 4.0

Alexandra Krunic to beat Jelena Ostapenko @ 2.88 (always trade an Ostapenko match!)

 – backed @ 3.0 – (Krunic: +0.5 : Ostapenko: -0.25) 

0.3pt hedged early first set @ 2.0 – (K: +0.2 : Ost: +0.05)

– 0.1pt backed again two games later @ 4.5 – (K: +0.55 : Ost -0.05)

0.2pt hedged in 7th game @ 2.0 – (K: +0.35 : Ost: +0.15)

0.1pt backed early in 2nd set @ 6.6 – (K: +0.91 : Ost: +0.05)

– 0.3pt hedged at 4-2 2nd set @ 2.2 – (K: +0.61 : Ost: +0.35)

– 0.1pt backed at 4-4 2nd set @ 7.0 – (K: +1.21 : Ost: +0.25)

0.05pt backed at 5-4 15-0 2nd set @ 19.0 – (K: +2.11 : Ost: +0.2)

– 0.3pt hedged at 5-5 2nd set @ 3.85 – (K: +1.255 : Ost: +0.5)

– 0.1pt backed at 6-5 2nd set @ 15.0 – (K: +2.655 : Ost: +0.4)

– 0.2pt hedged in 2nd set tie break @ 5.0 – (K: +1.855 : Ost: +0.6)

– 0.5pt hedged at 4-6 in tie break @ 2.42 – (K: +1.145 : Ost: +1.1)

Truly extraordinary how the Ostapenko matches yoyo. All rules of holding serve go out the window. Every point played as match point. Ostapenko actually in good form throughout and so I took a chance at almost levelling up when she faced two set points in the 2nd set tie break. Throughout I was keen to build her score though as she was playing well. Krunic also always well in there but was the bottler at 6-4 up in the tie break.The 2.42 they offered at that point was too short as it was only to go one set each. Serious value lay. A lot of the traders lose their cool watching Ostapenko. The Boz kept it calm. Was a time I rooted for her. Now I watch to make money!!

Krunic lost four of the next five points. Great match to watch and trade in but totally exhausted now! Need to see how Riske is getting on!!

0.25pt BACK start on each. Go green when presented and be ready to ping pong if the yoyo starts! (Never a truer word! See above)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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