BOZmail 28th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 28th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.5839 points (+2.5839 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.7831 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +13.0707 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 47/61 = 77.04%  Backs : 8/29 = 27.58%

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LESS IS MORE

2-15 FONTWELL

You might have been forgiven for thinking the LIM had come unstuck when three of the main four opponents became non runners (despite perfect racing ground – more evidence of the flighty nature of British horse racing at the moment although I’m guessing that they like me were expecting bog trotter weather/ground at Sedgefield on Thursday which couldn’t have been further from the truth!) an hour before the off and then the other one fell over in running!

But half the skill of LIMs half the time is finding horses that can beat themselves with the conditions they are being asked to race under and that was the case with Arthur’s Sixpence who despite having the race set up for him still couldn’t even make second with the weight he was being asked to carry. I’d got some 1.7 when the non runners were declared anyways so I was nursing only a small step back if the race couldn’t find one to win which of course it did (found two!) and I wouldn’t have found either of them in a million years. Kitty’s Light looked a very soft second fav to me! The beauty of LIM again and dare I say it has looked more its old self again of late despite the horror result on Monday (always gonna get one of them now and again in any year).

And on that note, I’ve waited over a year for our follow up to the Jugopolist winning on here at 50/1 at the away meet during the 2019 Cheltenham Festival. They don’t happen every day – 50/1 shots you can fancy in a five horse race! So I’m looking forward to Friday. Get on early on Silver Man which has Brodie Hampson booked especially and carries a feather weight just like the one we backed at Bangor on Tuesday where she flagged herself up again for the fine rider she is with a brilliant front running ride on Timetoroe. Silver Man is 13 now and hasn’t won for three years but has won much better races than this on his day at 30lbs higher in the weights and crucially likes to run from the front and if I’m not mistaken that looks the plan again with the booking of Brodie. Not a cert but if you still believe in the old boy (I do) at 50/1 in a five horse race. Well, I look for one of them every year!

Of the front two in the betting, I prefer the lay on Never Learn who carries a penalty for a win 164 days ago (never easy) and claimer Harry Kimber is being used to offset that despite Harry Cobden being at the meet as you’ll see from our to follow play for the day below. That can be taken either way. The stable are out for the run or they are trying to win. I’d fancy Flying Verse under Charlie Todd in either case. He doesn’t carry a penalty for LTO when he would have won but for the horlicks STD made of the final fence. Is the more fancied of the front two by me so I pay for the punt on the 50/1 shot by laying Never Learn.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on NEVER LEARN (around 2.7)

0.1pt BACK on SILVER MAN (around 51.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

24th:     -0.65   (+0.9328) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 16.0

25th:    +0.4017 (+1.3345) Back @ 9.05

26th:    +0.196  (+1.5304) Back @ 12.82 : Lay @ 8.15 etc

27th:    +0.196  (+1.7266) Lay @ 1.7

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Goodwood (Aug 29)

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Perth (Aug 30)

Samsons Reach -Entered for Southwell (Aug 31)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE FOR FRIDAY:

3-15 FONTWELL – ASHUTOR @ 6/4 – 0.15pt BACK

I was expecting a longer price on this and you might get if you are patient but bottom line is that Ashutor gets three pounds for the three quarter length beating last time they met from Beat the Judge so should reverse form with him as STD was the culprit again last time so you could say there is a 9lb swing there this time! Monsieur D’Arque also held on times and the fact that he faces a steeper penalty for win LTO.

So this is quite a confident back if the young improver jumps well. I expect him to like Fontwell so won’t be trading unless it turns into a funny old market/ground and starts yoyoing as we are seeing a lot at the minute with the weather and nonrunners mucking a lot of things about. Ashutor is my nap of the day. Silver man the one I shout home!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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