BOZmail – 28th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY APRIL 28th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: NO PLAY DAY

The winning streak sadly ended as I picked the wrong one Saturday and you’ll see again that saving grace of staking down and limiting damage for the day. Last two days have been tough for LIM and Saturday I looked in depth at four races and the favourite won all four.Was mighty impressed with two of the four winners including our lay (which the market flagged up) and the queen’s Eightsome Reel who was particularly impressive in defying the market drift. Both make my to follow list.

Not much to be done against winning favs except stay out which is a rare occurrence for me but does happen on Sunday with absolutely no qualifying races in the UK or Ireland and so I thought I’d write instead about a few things that have come up on emails lately about the raison d’etre of LIM and its staking plan and advice levels for the new members joining us at the moment. I may put up a US lay for Sunday evening if I find one so look out for that. Normal service resumes Monday.

The Less is More monikker is double handed as I seek to find one race per day in which to seriously play as a reduction in betting activity for purpose of concentrating on consistent and long term profit and qualifying races are those with six or less runners to enable me to seek out the fav to take on and pay for the perceived value bet in the race. Less runners allows me time each day to do in depth race reads on all qualifying races (which I do the old fashioned way without use of computer programmes) to end with the one I consider our best chance of success. Some flexibility to take in a seven runner race on occasion with good reason and to jettison either the lay or more often the back in a race when I can’t confidently find one. Dutching backs and double or triple lays in a race also occasionally used. Whatever deemed best for bank management and gradual accumulation of profit which I take very seriously. You’ll see BOZmail sheet rules below of which number four is your most important. I sort the play out. Your job to get the best price you can on both back and lay. We all do our own thing to get the best we can. I publish my gets each month both to give you something to compare your effort too and to give me required info for bank management on a day to day basis.

I’ve been asked a few times recently why I start with a 20 point bank and use fractions of a point rather than whole points in back and lay advices. Just my way. The way I prefer. It has been pointed out that if I used a 200 point bank and posted a 2.5 point lay instead of a 0.25 point lay, my current advertised profit after five months of this annual cycle would be + 200 points rather than plus + 20 points which might look better on my advertising and in comparing me to other tipsters!

I leave such things for you guys to ponder. The important thing in that is what ratio of cash to point you decide to play at. Whatever you decide you stick to. I play to £100 per point and the other important thing is that when you look at how other tipsters do in comparison you look at the starting bank recommendation as much as you do their advertised points profit and see how many double bank in under five months as I’ve just done and how many do that again in the next five months. Some will of course and others outstrip by a long way in short bursts. The Boz doesn’t play in short bursts.

Furthermore, I always employ caution as those who’ve been watching for years and/or the past five months of this service know full well. I also don’t overdo the re-investment of profits. I tend to prefer keeping profits in my bank! Just my way again.

Doesn’t mean you have to play that way as we go on and you see how consistent I can be (and that is my main plus trait). I rarely top the league tables of advertised points profit (and so keep myself under sniffing bookmakers radar) and I NEVER and that really is never post an annual loss.

I do consider it more investing than gambling. LIM,as the cornerstone of the BOZmail,was designed for that purpose. Sorry if you have joined in on a loser. Of course I don’t win every day and after 15 consecutive winning days, was due a loser. Mainly, we win (although also worth noting rule number 6 which is a truism and is perhaps a truism of all punters) and alongside that guarantee is the other one that whatever I post you can be assured will be as a result of me working hard to achieve my best.

I always back my own advices and expect no less!

BOZ

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

21st:     +0.194 (+2.346)LAY @ 2.62 : BACK @ 28.0

22nd:    +0.686 (+3.032)LAY @ 1.7

23rd:     +0.194 (+3.226)LAY @ 2.7

24th:     +1.092 (+4.318)LAY @ 1.7 : BACKS @ 4.5 & 9.0

25th:     +0.745 (+5.063)LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 6.0

26th:     +0.24 (+5.303)LAY @ 2.96

27th:      -0.22 (+5.083)LAY @ 2.1

28th:      NO PLAY DAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 95/132 = 71.96% :   BACKS: 22/85 = 25.88%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action

King of Comedy

Land of Legends

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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