BOZmail – 27th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY OCTOBER 27th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.236 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-00 AINTREE

If ever there was a horse benefited from a wind operation it was Frodon. He already had the attitude of a battle hardened chaser who tries his heart out and a jockey who revels in that sort of horse. Help him to breathe easier and thus run faster and he was nigh unbeatable last year. The slight doubt was his failure to give weight to Baron Alco and he has to give weight all round again here. To have to do that to a latent sort like Kalashnikov – whose win in the Mildmay over La Bague Au Roi does put him right up there – is an ask and I’ll want to see the other doubt about the Nicholls stable form removed before I wade in. But in general, Frodon has the times. Won this last year and loves a scrap. The fact that he’s not favourite because of the weight means he’s value. And thus a knocking bet.

There is some LIM cover in Born Survivor and the outside chance that one of these days Forest Bihan will realise the potential of his novice campaign. He’s the one that comes into this with race fitness and if you can believe he’ll overcome his brittle temperament – the sort that chucks his dummy out of the pram and then cries because no-one will pick it up for him – he could waltz on by getting so much weight. He’s the serious value but Frodon is the proven and the battler so that even if Forest Bihan were to come into his wing mirrors, I’d be for thinking that a smoothly breathing Frodon would fight him off. Probably chuck his dummy back at him and tell him to go suck on it! So Frodon for me. I’ll lay Kalashnikov to pay for it but not huge if the Nicholls stable form still has a question mark over it…….. Which it doesn’t any more. Quel Destin just won convincingly.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on KALASHNIKOV (around 2.3 : no greater than 2.7)

0.2pt BACK on FRODON (around 3.3 or better if you can get it)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 179/273 = 65.56% :   BACKS: 52/185 = 28.10%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

23rd:   +0.146 (+3.108) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 4.2

24th:   +0.196 (+3.304) Lay @ 4.3

25th:   -0.092 (+3.212) Lays @ 1.96 & 2.36 : Back @ 15.0

26th:   -0.18 (+3.032) Lay @ 2.2

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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HORSE TO FOLLOW AT CHELTENHAM on SATURDAY:

2-35 CHELTENHAM – KAIZER – 0.1pt BACK @22/1 or better

Backed @ 34.0 : Hedged @ 13.0 before the off = P/L : 0

(Found the Cheltenham hurdles a big challenge as many do. The pace of the races makes them even tougher. So you see the benefit of trading. Free bet just in case and at 21/1 which was almost recommended price! Will be kept on to follow list for now. Perhaps won’t have done confidence any good but aimed lower, I’d still believe there

Is more to come if spirit isn’t broken)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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