BOZmail 27th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

TUESDAY OCTOBER 27th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +37.6891 points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 28.0248 points (+8.0248 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 39.0498 points (+31.0498 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7635 points (-0.2365 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 98/134 = 73.13%  Backs : 25/82 = 30.48%

2-00 BANGOR

I daresay you had fun with that! Not a total disaster for LB and I take heart from some of it for the future. She jumped ok the first circuit when the racing pace wasn’t on and was up nice and prominent so until the 7th, cause for optimism. Especially as the money had come before the off. If you got some of the 12 or 13 to one in the watch period, it was an easy pre race trade at 6.5 or so. Money was however always steady in the market for Wild Polly and went ballistic in the ten minutes before the off. That flagged up the expected result and that late notice of mine that she was the one most likely to benefit the extra distance also accurate. Her experience also showed. She goes on the list. Whiskey Lullaby does not. She definitely has a touch of the slows for Rules racing. Will need a year or so to build that up if it is possible.

Things we learned about Lady Bowes? Well she beat the Elliot horse and didn’t beat the 200/1 Alexander horse. Sunset also let the Ayr form down suggesting I may have over rated that. Rain before racing was heavier than I guessed at so ground wasn’t great for Lady B (heavy in places) and it is possible she didn’t stay the two and a half miles (over thirty lengths adrift by the end) although more likely the jumping error at the seventh as the pace lifted knocked her confidence and the body swerve at the ninth that knocked her into Nicholls’ mountain mare and effectively ended her race meant she cantered in the final part of the race hesitantly scooping over the remaining hurdles. That will have to be worked on.

The body swerve bit may also have been that left handed course thing although may also just have been her novicey inexperience.

So she weren’t a natural jumping wise. She did also look worryingly little in comparison to the Nicholls and Alexander monsters so maybe the Grand National is ambitious (Tiger Roll is little as well though. Not a barrier per se)! 

Unsure about whether she stayed. On balance I think it was her jumping going more than distance and ground and left handedness. But we need more evidence now and next couple of races can’t come quick enough. Except I imagine Jimmy will be back on the schooling fences with her. Getting the confidence back the first task.

Patience required. And that we have to give. The race read was decent and our unbeaten LIM stretches to thirteen days. Positives can be taken. And we move ever onward!

It wouldn’t be a big one at Bangor on Tuesday with Good Boy Bobby coming in off the back of a couple of classy races last couple of times out. Now in the ownership of Isaac & Munir, he’ll no doubt be aimed high this year but several of Twistys have been needing the run this year and he hasn’t banged his usual big autumn strike rate so not a shoo in here at even money with three good ones up against him. Winningseverything has potential but is a bit short priced on chasing debut so I prefer the Skelton Antunes who with times and expected classy schooling can challenge the fav receiving weight. More experienced What’s Occurring might have got my vote but for his stable also only tiptoeing into things this year and would need to find a bit on paper to win and may also need quicker ground.

On balance a just play the market day. There is value taking Bobby on and I go small on Skelton Antunes to be the one.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on GOOD BOY BOBBY ( around 2.0 )

0.05pt BACK on ANTUNES (around 5.5) 

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6 

23rd: NO BET

24th:  +0.049  (+2.0551) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 5.5

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.2156 (+2.2707) Lays @ 1.7 & 3.8 : Back @ 10.5

*********************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR) 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Oct 29)

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie     

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Oct 29)

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Oct 30)

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

****************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *