BOZmail 27th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 27th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 113/158 = 71.51%  Backs : 32/99 = 32.32%

1-50 NEWBURY

Sticking with the three runner theme! Looked hard at Braveman’s Game who is one of our six LIM winners this month but as you’d expect, all our to follow horses are in mighty competitive races so I’m plumping for a small stakes acca play there (see below) and take this one on as the LIM knowing a bit about all three horses. I know Fiddlerontheroof and Getaway Trump because both have defied me this month and I have them on side this time as the race read suggests they may well fight out the finish with Fiddlerontheroof getting the marginal call.

The play however is to oppose Henderson’s Caribean Boy whose negative comes in looking an out and out soft ground horse with his only attempt on good ground being his worst. Should struggle to keep up with two much – potentially – pacier sorts.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on CARIBEAN BOY (around 3.0) 

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous – Entered for the Stayers hurdle (Mar 18)

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Ayr (Nov 30)

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde – Entered for Newbury (Nov 28)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered for King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28) & Champion Hurdle

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) – Entered for Leicester (Nov 29) & Southwell (Dec 1)

Summerville Boy – Entered for the Stayers Hurdle (Mar 18)

Ga Law

Hitman

First Flow – Entered for Tingle Creek,Sandown (Dec 5)

Get Your Own

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on FRIDAY at Newbury:

1-15 Braveman’sgame @ 6/4

2-25 Defi Sacre @ 10/1

3-00 Mc Fabulous @ 5/2

         Summerville Boy @ 11/2

I’m playing with the Acca bank on Friday to back the permed treble with McFabulous & Summerville Boy having a a decent chance between them to dethrone Paisley Park & Lisnagar Oscar although you have to say that is potentially the hottest race of this season so far. No back numbers in the field and a guaranteed stella watch. Defi Sacre goes up in class but likes it here and showed he had come back in great heart LTO and looking to carry on his magnificent momentum of last year. Jockey James Best in the plate and one of my hero job jockeys who gets on fabulous with the Sacre who has a tremendous attitude himself and continues to jump like a stag. I shall enjoy watching that whatever the result. Don’t let me put you off trading the single on Defi either if that’s your thing now. You should get a good play thereon.

The opener was nearly my LIM and Braveman’s game has a great chance if he has come on again from his last run. The Soaring Glory form took a bit of a hit with that heavy Wetherby fall and he was actually already getting crossed off my to follow list before he fell after losing concentration and getting spooked by a horse behind. He’d bulldozed the last hurdle down the back. Not what you want to see. The good hurdlers learn to nimbly pop the obstacle at speed and Soaring Glory looks like he may never get that to me now. Chasing before long. He has that strong stayers stamp though and did look to be going on to be an easy winner when he fell very heavily.

And Braveman’s game does actually come out second best in this on my race read behind the Henderson horse hence the rejection as an LIM play. I’m hoping he will have improved further and can make up the only marginal deficit. He has ratings on his side and the right jockey so I keep the faith with him but keep the acca small mainly because of the doubt on him.

My play is a 0.05pt single on Defi Sacre as the value of the day. And a permed 0.05pt treble on the three races. So two bets in the win treble and the one win single. Off to enjoy the watch! Total Spend from the acca bank = 0.15pts

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

22nd:  – 0.174  (+3.092) Lay @ 2.16

23rd:   +0.6566 (+3.7486) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 3.8

24th:   -0.318  (+3.4306) Lay @ 2.06

25th:   +0.7984 (+4.229) Lay @ 1.9 : Back @ 13.0

26th:   NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +50.9142points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.1318 points (+12.1318 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.5529 points (+40.5529 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3785 points (-0.6215 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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