BOZmail – 27th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY MAY 27th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-55 CARTMEL

Van Uytvanck making a fightback in the tennis as I write with Laura Siegemund already in and I might be tempted to switch to tennis as the horses continue to challenge me and May on the cusp of break even again. No excuses Sunday. Close but got it wrong. Bank Holidays not always my favourite time but I’ll give it another go Monday despite Morning Royalty not turning out again. Was gonna be very sweet on him because he likes the slop and the rain belted down here early Sunday morning and there is more forecast for Sunday night so we could get a change of ground for Monday. Lends me to look for an outsider and the one I like is Special Catch in the Louis Roederer which is the annual champagne charlie race at Cartmel. Special Catch runs first time for local trainer Barbara Butterworth who is a small concern but takes this one off Ruth Jefferson and if the change of scenery works and the ground does come up sloppy can be given a strong chance on old form. On a lenient mark.

Bet paid for with a lay on Eyes of a Tiger who won’t like any rain in the ground and must give weight all round under Danny Cook who has been a bit absent of late.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on EYES OF A TIGER (around 3.0 ; no greater than 3.5)

0.1pt BACK on SPECIAL CATCH (around 17.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66

22nd:  +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4   

23rd:   +0.48 (+1.002) BACK @ 1.96

24th:    -0.215 (+0.787) Lay @ 1.86  

25th:    +0.196(+0.983) Lay @ 2.76

26th:    -0.585 (+0.398) Lay @ 1.97 : BACK @ 3.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 106/156 = 67.94% :   BACKS: 27/100 = 27%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

PLAYER               PRICE TAKEN HEDGED AT     CURRENT P/L

Simona HALEP1pt LAY@5.6
-5.2
ANISIMOVA0.1pt BACK@120.0
+12.4
QIANG WANG0.1pt BACK @340.0
+34.4
Iga SWIATEK0.1pt BACK @151.0
+15.5
VAN UYTVANCK0.1pt BACK @1000ELIMINATED
Polona HERCOG0.1pt BACK @1000
+100.4
LauraSIEGEMUND0.1pt BACK @1000
+100.4
ROF

+0.4
Azarenka (3rd Rd)






Having fought back, Alison Van Uytvanck let it slip again. Laura Siegemund faces 15th seed Belinda Bencic in the second round and is likely to be a good match price for that. She holds a 2-0 head to head plus so I’d be very hopeful she could convert,  

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