BOZmail – 27th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 27th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-40 MARKET RASEN

Watched all of Hereford today and found a horse to follow as you’ll see below called Tiffin Top. Dead impressed with him once he settled and looks set to go on from that.

Winners win again. Sadly not Ruby though. She got the ride and was put in the position again to go on and win but not even the sensitive hands worked and she flopped it again. Poor old Ruby. Just such a fragile madam. Needs it to come just right. Not a battler I’m afraid. Doesn’t get back on my list.

You had to get in really early to get the price on the McCain lay inside my parameters and my 50% staggered stake meant I was faced with having to settle for outside the parameters today. A few of you emailed to ask what I reckoned and my answer was that you could see how keen I was to lay from what I wrote and I personally do like to get on at times like that just to uphold the LIM premise of a winning day even when the winner can’t quite do it. It’s always a bit of a risk and jeopardises bank management when you do it so I always leave it to your discretion. No worries if you stayed out of the lay at the price it drifted to by the end. If you saw its run, you’ll have seen why I was so confident with the weight and that stable condition. Never feel bad for not chancing it. Wisdom or regret when you see the result. Both are ok. It always balances out in the end. I was just getting a tad back for that one early in the month (12th) that I laid at the perimeter price only for it to go on and win. Double pronged system this. You gotta get the gen and the price right. Leeway for error on each! Still end up ahead overall!

Wednesday sees just the one NH meeting as the jumps starts its wind down now and the Boz about to shift into flat racing and tennis mode for the summer months. This maiden affair at Market Rasen first and an odds on shot to take on. Champ on board so as short as 4/7 on early tissue but I take it on with Lady Camelot who gets a stone and wouldn’t be far behind the fav on previous form and time figures. The fav is a pointer and speed therefore has been an issue in all rules runs although LTO was his best effort and might gradually be getting the hang. Lady Camelot has a good effort at Catterick behind Reve that rivals it and the time of that race gives a real chance here getting that weight. Bubbles of Gold not a 4/7 shot in my book so take that when it’s offered and let’s see if we can’t push the profit towards double figures for this month.

Imperial Elixir also offers some credible LIM cover.

Recommendation:

0.55pt LAY on BUBBLES OF GOLD (around 1.6 : not greater than 2.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

24th:    +0.596(+8.5245) LAY @ 2.5 : BACK @ 4.02

25th:    +0.24 (+8.7645) LAY @ 1.99

26th:     +0.09 (+8.8545) LAY @ 4.4 : BACK @ 4.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 73/102 = 71.56% :   BACKS: 17/66 = 25.75%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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