BOZmail – 27th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY MARCH 27th  2020 

Several of you asking for some Boz best betting practice articles and whilst I am still struggling a bit healthwise (made the mistake of going shopping yesterday and paying for it a bit!), I am finding it tough to raise the energy for new work but I have managed to dig a few recent efforts out of the files and will post them up over the next few days. Some of you will remember the hiatus that occurred in February 2019 when I found out about the Betfair practice of offering to place your lay automatically to stated liability after a price drift to adjusted stake ( a seriously not recommended practice!) and I have found the piece I wrote about that now but it is very convoluted and some of the content is now outdated so I spare you that angst ridden piece that actually involved me in concerted correspondence with my ex-employers calling them all the names under the sun (for which I have not been sued but maybe fairly luckily so!) but the gist was that I wasn’t very keen on BSP for a while. This is the follow up article when I came back into the fold on backs rather than lays. It remains relevant because I am indeed still very much firmly a fan of Betfair exchange prices and subsequent BSPs on longshot outsiders (as shortlisters saw to their advantage recently with INDEFATIGABLE at Cheltenham) whilst still not remotely interested in the BSP laying option that they still promote. A nefarious practice if ever I saw one. 

So the current position where BSP stands is; a backer not a layer be. Keep your laying on the actual exchange. The below article/anecdote comes from May 2019 when I returned to the Betfair fold.

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

US RACING – FRIDAY play in Crisis Corner

16-45 TAMPA BAY DOWNS

Ok, so found a race for Friday and whilst it would hardly be ideal in the serious LIM way of things, it is something of interest to alleviate the sitting at home watching the missus do her knitting!

Hifalutin looks a fav worthy of taking on with only moderate form in lower grade whilst second fav Billysbirthdaygirl takes a drop in class and can be expected to be competitive. Then because this form is very moderate, there are two first time outers with breeding to give them a strong chance first time up with Palaces Diamond under Scott Spieth of particular interest. He has reportedly been sparkling in workout and whilst that always has to be taken with a bit of caution, he won’t have to be anything other than not green to be around at the finish here.

Recommendation:

£2-50 LAY on HIFALUTIN

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:  +£2-94 (-£1-16) Lay @ 3.0

21st:   NO BET

22nd:  -£1-75 (-£2-91) Lays @ 2.25 & 10.5

23rd:  +0.294 (+£0-03) Lay @ 1.79

24th:    -£1-52 (-£1-49) Lay @ 1.76

25th:    IRISH RACING ABANDONED

26th:    NO BET

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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THERE IS GOLD IN GOLDEN TOWN

A while ago I wrote a piece for Betting Insiders about my old pal – the racehorse Munsaab – who I had got to know during the time he was trained at the stable close to where I live. Pit Farm Stables – the domain of trainer Jimmy Moffat. I extolled the virtues of getting to know horses inside out for accurate betting purposes and that concentrating on ones in training nearby to where you live was a practical way of doing that. With Munsaab, you bet him when the ground was right. No need to bother any other times. He was a deluge horse. Could not have it wet enough.

My getting to know Jimmy’s horses is purely observational. They live near me and I follow them and get interested in them on that basis. I observe Jimmy as a trainer in a similar fashion. I’ve gotten to know his ways too. It is a very useful tool for betting success and I wholeheartedly recommend it.

This tale is about another horse in his charge called Golden Town on whom I have just had my most spectacular betting and tipping success ever. I have been trying to understand it ever since hence my desire to tell the tale to you in case you can shed any light on it. It was spectacular because of the BSP it returned which is the other reason for me writing this piece. I wrote another very recently for Betting Insiders in which I ranted on about my prejudice against SP returns and how I did not recommend taking them as good betting practice. In that I alluded to the Betfair SP and was fairly uncomplimentary about it and claimed that it was a tremendous boost for bettors when it first arrived – especially when you were backing outsiders – as it regularly outstripped the industry SP – sometimes to gargantuan effect. But that it was conspicuously not like that any more. 

I was wrong about that. My beef had been particularly with a new practice of offering lays to BSP settling based on stated required liability of customer rather than required stake. You are being asked to accept a bet where you don’t know what your stake is because it is dependent on the returned BSP in relation to the liability you have stated that you are comfortable with. So that like with many a back SP bet, you don’t actually know how much you are going to win. Only how much you are going to lose.

I’m still not happy about that practice and still don’t recommend it but I have to come down from my position of dissing BSP in general because subsequent research and observation has shown that BSP is still outstripping ISP on outsiders to extraordinary amounts. Presumably this is not just because of my complaint and hasn’t just started up again because I wasn’t happy! I had stopped looking at BSPs, doing all my work on the exchanges. I started looking at BSP in the lead up to that article because of what had happened to one of my customers and after that article because the Betting Insiders editor Steve Carter sent me evidence of his awareness that outsiders in Irish Racing were still doing well on BSP.

I draw your attention first to an Irish race that takes place on the critical day of May 14th 2019 when my Golden Town experience occurred. It is the 8-20 at Killarney and Steve sent me the BSP results panel from Timeform as example of his assertion. A five runner race won by Arctic Fire at an ISP of 11/1 but returned on BSP at a nearly double 20.61. That’s good enough evidence but if you get the page up on your Timeform account, you will see an even more startling fact. The rag in that race was Mo Chara who came expectedly last and was returned at an ISP of 100/1. Its BSP however was 568.39!!  I nearly fell off my chair! Even during the halcyon early days, the stupendous and gargantuan discrepancies were not that stupendous nor that gargantuan!! That’s nearly five times bigger return. Wow.

Keep that thought because of course Mo Chara didn’t win. He ran as he was expected to by the market. Golden Town however………

So we shift to the 2-10 at Sedgefield on the same day May 14th 2019. A Class 5 Handicap hurdle over 2m 1f. Golden Town is entered after a 168 day rest from racing

and is 25/1 in a ten runner race on early tissues. I’ve known Golden Town since he arrived at the Moffat yard and have watched all of the 25 Rules races he has run for the yard. That after a 2 year old career for Goldophin in which he ran six times, winning a Class 2 maiden and a Class 2 handicap and running sixth in a class 3 group race. There then followed nearly two years off the track before he turned up at Jimmy’s as a hurdler. Obviously been some issues. That’s the sort of horse Jimmy specialises in. Getting them back towards their potential. Was placed in 4 of first six runs for Jimmy and became known and visible as a classy sort that found it difficult to quicken at the business end. Was second several times when it looked likely to win and after a brief spin in a group hurdle at Haydock where it was obvious he was out of his depth, ran another series of placed efforts without winning before being rested.

When he came back he ran below previous form so, still without an NH win, he was sent for a wind op and duly came back from that to win his first hurdle race at Cartmel (a class 4 handicap hurdle) after a few misfires before it.Had been a single figure shot in every one of those early races for Moffatt because of his Godolphin form. 9/1 the day he won at Cartmel after which he carried his handicap penalty fairly abysmally in five races at class 3 & 4 being pulled up in the last before his run on May 14th. By now he is running as an unconsidered 20/1 and 33/1 shot.

The race on the 14th May is a class five hurdle. The lowest level Golden Town has run at in his 31 race career. He has the quality 10lb claiming jockey Charlotte Jones on his back ( now reduced to 7lb again.She has a good SR for the Moffatt yard) and he is joint second top rated in the 10 runner field on official BHA ratings. What’s more, he tops both the Racing Post and Topseed ratings (and the Boz ratings) for the race based on his past form overall rather than his recent form under his handicap penalty. Back down at 2lb below his winning hurdle mark on May 14th and fresh from a 168 day rest and no longer carrying that unable to quicken in a finish doubt since his win at Cartmel. The Boz fancies him more than he fancied Sally Hart – the girl at his school that you were God if you dated! But he’s 25/1 on the tissue and in the morning exchanges he drifts to 66/1. In a 10 runner race where he is a clear top three horse at the very least if Moffatt has him ready to win off his proven winning handicap mark.

I had my doubts but I’ve seen Jimmy do it countless times over the years with Highland Lodge and Chief Dan George and more recently with Bon Chic ridden by Charlotte Jones who won at Aintree at 33/1. I believe in Jimmy and I remembered the gospel according to Dave Nevison who states that if the horse you fancy strongly starts to drift, you back it again. Often stable money shows in a market. Not often on a Moffatt winner and not on this day. How does he do that? The race had a Skelton hotpot in it called Royal Beekeeper that went off at 8/11 and finished 6th. Did Jimmy know that? Was that why this race was chosen? I dunno. Answers on a postcard. All I can say is that when Golden Town won under a beautifully executed ride from Charlotte, there was not much cheering in the ring. The market has to have been sidestepped because the ISP was an unbelievable 66/1 but the BSP…..?  227.85

I nearly wept when I saw that. My prejudice meant I had taken my price at 57/1 and was ecstatic and I had been outdone not only by the ISP but nearly four times over by the BSP(which I later found a couple I tipped to who hadn’t read my SP article had taken advantage of!). On a horse with a serious chance in the race by anyone’s assessment. Whether you are a fan of Jimmy Moffatt or not. He does have long losing spells and often runs horses that look out of their depth as he coaxes them back to their winnings ways. Is that why they ignored Golden Town on May 14th? I can’t say.

I don’t understand.

All I will say is that I was wrong about BSPs no longer having the power to be gobsmacking. Take note. I have been forced to consider them again when I fancy a longshot and the longer the better. On May 16th, still reeling from the BSP return on

Golden Town, I fancied Dancinginthewoods at 50/1 in the 5-45 at Newmarket. I placed my first BSP bet in donkey’s years and it rewarded my refound faith by returning at 170.0. Sorry Betfair if I lost faith in you for a while there. I’m back now.

Ignorant but happy.

Gary Boswell

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