BOZmail – 27th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JUNE 27th  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-30 NEWCASTLE

A few have asked me how come I do better with jumps over the flat. No big answer, just the simple one I think. I prefer jumps racing therefore I watch more. Therefore I know more. Simple as that I think. LIM works better in jumps to my mind too and you saw that yesterday. Middlebrow was a clear pick for me and I managed 25/1 on the exchanges just before the off. Could see the press didn’t fancy it. Always worth waiting when they think they have it covered. The market liked Storm Home but he jumped poorly. And that in running trainer’s form percentage has more bearing in jumps too. I like using that as a guide to lays and favourites to take on. Borne out by the years. You did well if you laid the Cnut at under 4.0. I got pence at 3.5 but most at 4.0 and over which was me using my discretion of course (the parameters I post are just a discretionary guide to give inexperienced layers an idea and what to watch out for). The more I looked, the more I was against it and I could see the market fancied Tizzard’s. I had a 1-2-3 that included neither of those two. Them’s the races we want! Pity there isn’t small field jump racing every day! Still, we have tennis every day for a while now and next leg of the staggered acca is on Thursday. Let’s hope the return to form continues. This is where my importance of breaking even philosophy really comes into focus. So that the boom spells are all profit. Don’t like spending winnings paying for losers! Main trait of the Bozmail over the years, play with bookmaker’s money as much as you can!

No jumps in the UK tomorrow though and only one LIM qualifier. The 3-30 at Newcastle on the all weather. Quite like it though. It has a heavily penalised LTO winner as favourite in Theatro. Said to be well in at the weights and is getting nearly a stone from Tammooz. The Varian horse is the class though and comes out best on my times. No negative in the Theatro stable stats this time but still a big positive to be gleaned from Varian’s form and his strike rate at Newcastle and with Atzeni on board.

The clincher for me is that Theatro didn’t run that well last time he tried the Newcastle Tapeta whereas Tammooz is more an all weather horse. He’s the value.

Not as strong as I was on yesterday’s bet being flat not jumps but keeping staking same. Confident enough to try playing up the winnings a bit. And got a bit to play with! Trust you have too! The trick is to bank as much of it as you can!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on THEATRO (around 2.4 : no greater than 3.2)

0.1pt BACK on TAMMOOZ

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

              — Whole race played as trade– 

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

20th:    +0.294(+2.413) Lay @ 1.33

21st:   +0.3757(+2.7887) Back @ 2.12 : 

            — Whole match played as a two horse back trade —

22nd:   +0.184 (+2.9727) Back @ 1.94 

23rd:    +0.145 (+3.1177) Lay @ 3.65 : Back @ 3.65

24th:     BET VOIDED

25th:     -0.195 (+2.9227) Lay @1.78

26th:     +2.745(+5.6677) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @26.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 115/172 = 66.86% :   BACKS: 31/112 = 27.67%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise – Entered at Newmarket (June 29)

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.2222 points.

Staggered acca number 12: (LEG 2)

QUARTER FINAL AT EASTBOURNE ON THURSDAY (Jun 27):

Angelique Kerber to beat Simona Halep @ 1/1

Stake is 0.2222points.

I considered Ons Jabeur to beat Alize Cornet but that’s two good grass courters and a pretty even likely outcome although I love the way the big Tunisian plays and will be rooting for her. More of an edge in Kerber – the defending Wimbledon champion – to beat Simona Halep who is nobody’s obvious grass courter. Both are arguably good enough to play any surface but on clay you’d go Halep and on grass – after last year’s definitive final SW19 win over Serena – you go Kerber who was always predominantly hardcourt but has past wins over Sharapova on grass too and was involved in the classic v Muguruza the year the Venuzalan won Wimbers.She does use the surface well.

 The back score is 6-4 to Halep (hence the oddsmakers preferring her) but 1-0 to Kerber on grass and three of Halep’s wins were way back (earliest is 2009) in the days before Kerber emerged as a world force and the match up between them as women’s heavyweights is 4-3 to Kerber. So tight. Should be a classic to watch. And not the same grade A bet that leg one was but well in there as a good call to have a free bet on. Live on BBC 2 and Eurosport. 

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I did also mention that I might be betting on the Women’s world cup footy having seen a fair bit of it and I like to back value in these sort of events once I’ve had a good chance to assess all the teams.Not quite seen enough though to officially tip at this stage so this is BOZmail Rule number 6 time again and I’m happy to give my opinion on the value in the quarter finals seeing as a few of you have been asking. I take Italy to beat the Netherlands at 13/5. I was favouring Japan in the outrights until last night when they were robbed by the Dutch who will be favs against Italy courtesy of their Euro triumph but have looked far from world class in this. One or two key players have gone past sell by date. The Italians are fresh faced newcomers to the tournament but play with all the passion you’d expect from the nation and with a fair amount of the technical skill too. I wouldn’t put you off 40/1 in the outrights either. They have a chance of meeting the clear favourites from USA in the final so that 40/1 is a decent back to lay proposition. As for England? Fancied them a bit before competition but the Cameroon debacle exposed their Achilles. A bit like Konta.

Can go tight under pressure and in the championship moments. Headless chickens at times against Cameroon as the African Ladies enacted their tribal warfare mode. Will be shouting for England but no bet. I actually think Norway might do them tomorrow night. That’s the value. Just my opinion! 

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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