BOZmail – 27th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY JUNE 27th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.5234 points (-0.4766 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.876 points (+4.876 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.89 points (-0.11 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.8204 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 8/14 = 57.14%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

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LESS IS MORE: 

4-00 REDCAR

Friday’s Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on BONNYRIGG (around 2.3 or as lower if you can get it.)

Laid @ 2.34 : Hedged 0.22pt @ 3.2 before the off : 0.05@11.0 in running : P/L = +0.5047 points

I made a better job of reading this trade. My assertion last night was that it was tight between Bonnyrigg and City Code and I confirmed that on my morning study revisit. Got a highish 2.34 for my lay last night but then watched the price drift markedly throughout the watch as money came for the two unconsidereds Majd Al Arab and Commonsensical as well as City Code. Even the outsider Carbon Positive was taking money so I was starting to form the plan that when I did hedge (as soon as any significant money started coming back on Bonnyrigg which it never did) I would slant it in favour of Bonnyrigg getting beat.Maybe the stable knew something I didn’t. Hence I took 0.22pt @ 3.2 and was +0.13 on the defeat and +0.015 on Bonnyrigg. This then allows a bit of a play on Bonnyrigg in running if it becomes appropriate and when City Code was beaten a furlong out, it did indeed become appropriate because my study then says Bonnyrigg wins. The market disagreed as Majd Al Arab had a steady lead as they came to the dip. I took 0.05 @ 11.0 (posted at 8.0 but was matched at 11.0) on Bonnyrigg meaning I was still 0.08 on him getting beat but now 0.515 on James Doyle getting him up. So changing my green position in running – called Growing Grass in the trade. I did it because of knowing what the Doyler can do as a jockey and he duly did it.

One of my better plays!! Hope you also did ok. With 5/5 now I am starting to agree with those who do this on LIM regularly – whenever they have doubts about my race read – that it is a good idea for a while yet during this post lockdown hiatus. So much of the race read is guesswork at the moment. Having a trading plan that includes growing grass in running when appropriate does strike me as a way to go until the old normal is re-established. We’ll see what field sizes are like day to day going forward. Reports of small fields on the flat for this weekend which may change my mind back to restarting the old tipping style.We’ll see.

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If you’ve been waiting for me to signal when I feel we should go back to playing LIM (if you haven’t been joining me in the clawback of this past week), you should take careful note of what I am about to say about Saturday’s play. Mainly because somewhat unexpectedly, there has been a glut of LIM qualifiers for me to choose from on Saturday. I’ve chosen this class 6 handicap sprint at Redcar. There were a lot of easily dismissed races now that I’ve got my choice back but also a few other enticing plays in the traditional sense alongside this one where Bal Mal is put in at odds on to follow what he did at Beverley on Tuesday. He didn’t beat much but he did it in good style and with sprint pedigree backed up by Montjeu stamina from his dam’s side he could do same again if the bounce factor doesn’t emerge. Runs in a staying style as you’d expect out of a Montjeu. 

There are some question marks about taking him at odds on though. First and foremost being the change likely in the ground. Isn’t guaranteed to like wet on what he showed in his first two runs and there is thundery and heavy showers weather forecast for the area.

It has just started at Doncaster down the road as I write. Could be soft ground by four o’clock tomorrow. Keep an eye on that. Half the six pound penalty is offset by Fallon’s claim but the lad hasn’t come back from lockdown in great fettle and the other big query for me is Quinn’s other runner Ice Ice Lady who makes handicap debut under Adam McNamara but has a couple of seconds to spare over the fav on my figures. Not ehough back form to be sure on that but he’s the value at the price for me especially if the rains come and Bal Mal doesn’t like the soft ground. Topweight Ruby Wonder is not a mile away from Bal Mal either on paper and nor is Abbaleka so all in all Bal Mal a decent lay with the stable second string my idea of one most likely to benefit.

So with a good feel of confidence from 5/5 trades in the past week, is The BOZ ready to try again at traditional LIM? The steadying factor is that only two of those five have been correctly identified lays that didn’t win. That stays my hand a bit. The 5/5 is at predicting oscillation in the market and I feel very strong about that on Bal Mal here. He doesn’t look an odds on to me and I’ll expect some drift in the price before the off.

On balance that’s my judgement call. If I was playing traditionally, I’d go very small again whereas  as a trade with the strong possibility of a greening out before the off and a change in the weather and ground giving us some chance of appropriate grass growing in play trade again that would be my recommendation.

There is also a To Follow trade for Saturday (see below) so trading day I declare once more to be. The flow is coming back however if the small fields incidence keeps up. Could be back to traditional plays next week on the flat (not really expected straight away on jumps).

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on BAL MAL (around 1.9 or lower if you can get it to be hedged when preferential odds appear before the off keeping in mind possible grass growing activity in play as another possible if the weather and ground have turned wet) 

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3655*) Lay @ 1.66 * arithmetic mistake corrected

13th: -0.24     (-0.6055) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8215) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2295) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3195) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2147) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

22nd: +0.0784 (-1.1363) Lay @ 2.12 : Backs @ 2.4 & 3.15

23rd:  +0.049  (-1.0873) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @ 2.5

24th:  +0.106  (-0.9813) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 3.2

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.5047 (-0.4766) Lay @ 2.34 : Backs @ 3.2 & 11.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (June 30) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Jaganory – Entered for Bath (July 2)

Waseem Faris

TO FOLLOW TRADE FOR SATURDAY:

3-00 NEWCASTLE – VIRGIN SNOW @ 9/2 : 0.25pt BACK

Usual advice of take the best price you can get and hedge when preferential odds become available.

Ben Curtis takes over from Jim Crowley but that’s ok and the negative might simply be the competitive and quality nature of the field. That said, Virgin Snow was very impressive at Haydock and on the Run Wild formline from last year could be the sort to improve again. Run Wild went on to win a Listed after lockdown before the inexplicable flop at Ascot. That run can perhaps be ignored and thus the form for Virgin Snow might be up to this. Aloe Vera the obvious danger but the 10lb received from her (weight for age) and the field does make our girl very interesting. Wouldn’t put anyone off taking this one in play especially if you get a good grass growing chance from your pre race play. Talented filly.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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