BOZmail – 27th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY JULY 27th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

6-00 LINGFIELD

That was one I got wrong on Friday and the paddock watch suggested it was a possibility. Certainly nothing to suggest increasing my stake! Did prove thin opposition but Annie Angel also seriously improved by Skelton. I doff my cap.

Saving grace was a low liability on the LIM play and thus some damage limitation.

Onwards and Upwards.

Loads happening Saturday. More racing than you can shake a stick at and thus the BOZmail exercises rule number one. Try to look where others do not. I initially expected Narina to show up as fav after its LTO win and was keen to oppose, rating Funny Man the likely better over the distance on times and breeding and with a better jockey booking. Tissue agrees with me however and there is a slight downside to opposing Narina in that Haggas formerly trained Funny Man so may well have a line on the potential outcome. His string seen a bit below par on Friday however after some turbulent times and the application of cheekpieces here would also be a negative for me.

More than that however I think there is value in supporting Hermocrates to beat both the front two. Promising run over distance LTO, ahead on ratings and with a stable/jockey combo that is sizzling at the moment. Stable especially. I like Rossa Ryan too. My kind of flat jockey.

Exercising bank management though after an unsuccessful day so not a huge play.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on NARINA (around 2.7 : no greater than 2.9)

0.1pt BACK on HERMOCRATES

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

19th:  NON RUNNER

20th:    +0.54 (+6.381)Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 3.0 

21st:     -0.275(+6.106)Lay @ 2.1

22nd:   +0.194(+6.30) Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 9.0

23rd:    +0.743(+7.043)Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 5.0

24th:     +0.144(+7.187)Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 6.0

25th:     +0.193(+7.38) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 8.4

26th:      -0.334(+7.046)Lay @ 1.52 : Back @ 7.8

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 134/198 = 67.67% :   BACKS: 41/135 = 30.37%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charle Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick – Entered for Windsor (Jul 29)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Yarmouth (Jul 30) & Galway (1 Aug)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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