BOZmail 27th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JULY 27th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.782 points (+0.782 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.2893 points (+6.2893 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.7573 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.0449 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 30/39 = 76.92%  Backs : 3/15 = 20%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Saturday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MONDAIN ( around 2.8 and lower if you can get it. A tad higher no problem if it has to be)

Laid @ 3.7 : Hedged 0.08pt @ 6.6 : P/L = +0.07 (less commission)

0.05pt BACK on SEXY BEAST (around 15.0)

Backed @ 14.0 : Hedged 0.07pt @ 9.6 : P/L = + 0.02pts (less commission)

Total Trade P/L =          +0.0882pts (+0.4265pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L = +0.98pts     (+0.2515pts)

Sunday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on LICKLIGHTER (around 2.3 or as low as you can get)

Laid @ 2.7 : Hedged 0.12pt @ 3.4 : P/L = 0.0294pts 

Total Trade P/L =          +0.0294pts (+0.4559pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L = +0.147pts     (+0.3985pts)

Decisive 6-3 to the non traders now after nine days but still an overall profit plus to the traders thanks to Soldier of love and Sexy Beast’s failure to just see his race out.Another unlucky back I’d have said.

3-00 MARKET RASEN

Very close in the market between the top two and close on the book too with Arthur’s Sixpence carrying a 4lb penalty up in class for win LTO and Lough Har not having won yet and possibly held on times with the point to point plod featuring in his form and a distinct need to improve jumping also showing.

So on balance I slightly prefer Arthur’s Sixpence although stable and jockey connection strong for Lough Har.

I did consider the double lay as my back in the race is Sporting Press who is a guess on fitness but has the promising Emma Smith-Chaston on board claiming seven and first run for Paula Smith – a trainer I know little about but sounds like a possible family connection. Doing more work to try and establish that fact. Back form for Sporting Press makes him the best in the field on class with possible second best being Skilled who has been off for nearly two years. Might have risked him with a bigger pot behind me but will stick with Sporting Press who I know a bit about and can be expected to be competitive if the paddock watch is positive.

Staying with traditional LIM from here in (comparative stats on trade and non trade will be wound up from here as I think I’ve shown how there is little between the two approaches when form remains patchy. Traditional LIM will win out when old form returns but still not quite there yet). Reverting to trade only when on the backfoot or if flat only days continue tough. Stakes staying modest however as form is still very up and down despite overall vibe over jumps staying sound now.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on LOUGH HAR (around 3.0 but might trade much lower so worth a wait to take as low a price as you can get)

0.05pt BACK on SPORTING PRESS (around 9.0) 

LOCAL TRACK FACTOR BETS:

1-25 CARTMEL – APTLY PUT @ around 8/1 – 0.05pt WIN – 4th

4-55 CARTMEL – NATIVE FIGHTER @ around 8/1 – 0.05pt WIN – 3rd

                              – MEGA DOUBLE @ around 8/1 – 0.05pt WIN – Fell

0.025pt EACH WAY DOUBLE = TOTAL STAKE : 0.2pt – LOST

Native Fighter ran best.Mega Double disappointing again and beaten when fell.

Shortlist found four winners (still very much suggesting that it’s working fine where NH racing is concerned) but just lost overall level stakes (to ISP. Small plus on BSPs) from a high incidence and I consider the day an investigation day and feel better armed now for a go at the next behind closed doors in August. I went down to the course and watched most of the racing from on Aynsome Road (took a few snaps as well) and stood with about 300 onlookers. None of the big screens erected that are usually there to stop you watching from off course.

All a bit weird really and it still makes little sense to me that they aren’t trying harder to get things back to normal. The two main pubs in the village stayed closed all afternoon despite beer gardens. Three of the lesser pubs did all trade and the village was otherwise busy. Shops all open. Make any sense to anyone else? I wore my face mask but the only others doing that were the stable staff.

Don’t see how the courses survive without paying punters back in.Or is this all part of the plan to eradicate on course bookmaking? Put the SP in the hands of the off course market. Looks like the agenda to me.

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

23rd:  +0.098   (+0.774) Lay @ 2.26

24th:   -0.27     (+0.504) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 5.0

25th:   +0.0882(+0.5922) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 6.6

26th:   +0.147  (+0.7392) Lay @ 2.7

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for Goodwood (July 29) & York (Aug 20) 

Malotru 

English King – Entered for Goodwood (July 30) & Doncaster (Sep 12)

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Goodwood (July 28) & Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE on SATURDAY:

4-45 Ascot – COLLINSBAY @ 9/4 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are on offer.

Backed @ 4.8 : Hedged 0.13pt @ 3.55 : P/L = +0.0294pts 

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE on SUNDAY:

3-40 Ascot – ON MY WAY @ 25/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are on offer.

Backed @ 27.0 : Hedged 0.075pt @ 15.0 before the off and 0.055pt @ 10.0 in running : P/L = +0.0294pts

Still had over a point profit in the bag if On My Way had run on to win after greening out before the final furlong and there did look a chance for a second or two and I was poised with my 1.5 lay for a point in case but never got near in the end and finished a couple of lengths adrift in fifth tying up just a tad in the final half furlong. Ran a very promising race however first time at that level burying the O’Brien fav and does indeed stay on the list as a good one. Spotted by a BOZmailer initially. Good work sir! You know who you are & made all us traders a nice bit of extra moolah. It all helps at the minute!

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden 

Lord Condi – Entered for Bangor (July 29) & Southwell (July 30)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure – Entered for Bangor (July 29) & Southwell (July 30)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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