BOZmail – 27th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SUNDAY JANUARY 27th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

1-30 FONTWELL

With everything else having gone right, it wouldn’t be January if something didn’t go wrong and sadly Lady Buttons just defied my bold prediction. My two backs were disappointing (no way Indian Opera goes to Cheltenham now!) but Indefatigable nearly made the weight tell as the inexperience of Lady B’s jockey showed and he didn’t hold on to her quite long enough. She was classy I thought in getting him out of gaol and stays on my To Follow for Cheltenham. She really does have terrific guts and I’d be very interested now if she goes for the Queen Mother.

So LIM goes into negative for the first time on this service but just a tad and no panic. Five days to sort it out before the month ends and the rest of the sheet remains healthy. No knee jerk on Sunday is the only certainty from here. I’ve worked hard on my options to ensure some repair work. Fontwell always a place I’m happy to visit in times of need!

This race is quite a tough one to be bullish about but it has all the ingredients for an LIM race. Favourite penalised for a win LTO where form has not been particularly franked and second was a Gary Moore only beaten three quarters of a length so he’ll have a good line in with his novice here Twenty Twenty who gets a stone and ten pound and won before at the course albeit in a juvenile. I expect a positive ride from Jamie and wouldn’t be surprised to see him win it. Magic Dancer has more obvious claims and Venetia and Henderson both send dark horses that are difficult to assess but you’d expect both to come on for LTO with First Figaro entered in a black type race which might mean nothing or might mean he’ll hose in. Even Darcy Ward can be given a squeak on Taunton form dropped down in handicap class here and should run better.

Very difficult to pick a winner but Arthington has the odds stacked against at the weights when you also factor in the 2lb jockey claim he is losing from LTO.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on ARTHINGTON (around 11/4)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 37/49 = 75.51% :   BACKS: 7/31 = 22.58%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin – Entered for Newcastle (Jan 29)

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Plumpton (Jan 30)

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

NH TO FOLLOW BETS on SATURDAY:

2-25 CHELTENHAM – FRODON – 0.15pt WIN @ 9/4 – WON

                                       VALTOR – 0.1pt WIN @11/2 – PULLED UP

Will Frodon go for the Gold Cup now? Interesting. Think I might back Elegant Escape against him if he does! The second has been on my To Follow before and gets back again now for the longer distance race. Valtor not a Cheltenham horse and perhaps flattered that first time out after all. Give him one more chance to see where they go next. Aintree would look more his sort of thing. Or Ascot perhaps.

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS

 

Outrights Portfolio P/L : + 0.633 points

Quarters Bet P/L          : – 0.35 points

Net P/L                          : + 0.283 points

 

If that was your first experience of betting in women’s grand slam tennis, welcome to my world!! Bloody wonderful wasn’t it? The stats above hardly tell the story if you are a trader. And if you’re not, why not?? The exchanges were invented for these moments and as I’ve banged on about on the Bozmail throughout 2018, you are really missing a trick if you don’t get involved in inplay trading. It applies in horse racing too (on the flat especially) but in tennis you get so much time and those tension tightens and momentum swings are so common at the business end of women’s tennis. It’s why I came to the sport and why I’m still here!

For those not au fait yet, Osaka was put up as the likely better player on the surface and we had a +0.633 points cushion in the fixed odds play so that when she is 7-6: 5-3 and 40-0 up with three championship points, you get about ten seconds to do your hedge. 10 points at 1.03 was my match (there was some 1.02 which I missed) thereby reducing my plus to +0.333 but with no liability on Kvitova any more and + 9.253 points if she goes on to win (less 2% commission). The swing was with her. She’s enough of a champ for it to be always possible. Backing her at 25/1 was also offered and an equally advantageous way to play. She takes the second set after a tremendous first match point save which temporarily took Osaka out of her bubble and bingo, Kvitova is back as exchange favourite start of the third at 1.85 and Naomi took a bathroom break giving you oodles of time to bolster your profit on her. I took a five point lay on Kvitova there and whammo, you are either side of 5 points up whichever way it goes.

 

I shan’t bore you with the further profit optimising trades I did in the final set.You get the idea. I set up the play. You take the profits. And played at 8-30am Saturday morning UK time so no excuses (unless you work on the buses!). If you were on the fixed odds play only, my guess is you won’t be next time. And trust me, there is always a next time in women’s tennis. I missed the Serena v Pliskova one in this tournament. Too busy snoring. This one made up for it.

 

I think the really great thing from my point of view is how you become part of the match. What I did mattered as much as what Naomi and Petra did. On a pure sport level, what Naomi did third set was top stuff and I watched the match again afterwards as a replay to enjoy that side of things. Could treat myself to an ice cream also as I watched! She really does have a chance of emulating Graf – Evert and co. now.

 

So the tennis is over for a while on the BOZmail. I only do the slams and I play much more and much harder in the French Open (May) and Wimbledon (June/July) not only because I prefer them both as opens to oppose favourites in (I seriously doubt Osaka will win in France) but also because I have accrued good bookmaker’s money to play with by then. January has been tough on the BOZmail in 2019 so far but we are still on course and doing ok!

 

Back to watching gee-gees!

 

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 1)

 

1-30 DONCASTER – DYNAMITE DOLLARS – 0.5pt BACK – WON

Value monkeys snapped up the 2/7 and a bit more on the exchanges briefly but having seen the race, relieved just to have won.” Lairy ” the lass called it. Had to look the spelling and meaning up! Means drunk!! Did jump the second last like that so glad the January hoodoo didn’t strike there. Stake back in the bank and will get on the case now to find a leg 2 asap. Keen to crack on with this as January nears its end and NH form settles down.0.125 points goes as stake on next leg.

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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