BOZmail – 27th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 27th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.561 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.5541 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Thursday play

3-17 MUSSELBURGH

Well I got the staking levels wrong way round on the backs (genuinely thought Twpsyn was the one they might come for) but you saw the value of having a jockey on board for you with George Rooke who is pretty canny and strong and Gina Mangan who sadly is not. She rode a badly judged race pace wise whereas Mr Rooke worked the race out in advance and bided his time. The weights do tell.

That said, Twpsyn was only ever on for second at best I’d say now I’ve seen the race and the market. Gaye the shrewdie was the salient observation!

And the temptation has to be to stay on the all weather the way that things have gone so far this year. Laying is hitting its stride which is the main thing. Getting a few good market things beat now. And waiting for the good ones to come along also working well. The day taken out on Tuesday proved wise. 

Loads to choose from Thursday though and it’s taken me a while to decide which one to play. My heart is drawn to Munsaab running in the 4-30 at Ludlow. Up in my top ten best mates of an equine nature having won three times for me at spiffing prices and has also earned me corn from writing about him and about knowing how his love of wet ground makes him a pal I can profit from. He’s 14 now and still trained round here by a mate of Jimmy’s in nearby Flookburgh. So Ludlow is a strong jaunt for him and if you’ve seen the news you know Shropshire is currently where all the water is. If you live round Ironbridge or Shrewsbury you have my sympathy. Cheer yourself up tomorrow and go shout for Munsaab! I’ve heard no whispers round here and been unable to check out the old boy himself but travelling that far to get sodden ground does have my conspiracy theory shackles a rising. If he wins pulling a cart, you read it here! Jimmy always has ‘em winning when least expected and Munsaab will have been infected by that philosophy I’m sure. I did see him run in a Hunters Chase at Cartmel last year where he plugged on round and only got beat by a quick one. That’s it with him. Has to be a sodden bog for him to be the one who can cope when others cannot. Not heavy ground necessarily. Just wet. His two Cartmel wins came on officially good ground according to the form book. I can assure you the form book has it wrong. The second was the day the heavens opened during the race. Flash flood time. Stair rods stuff.Proper Lake District weather. Stopped the field in its tracks. All bar Munsaab who sloshed on through. Known as the horse in wellies round here. Watch out in case that happens tomorrow at Ludlow. On form he has a tall order. Don’t be surprised to see him win or come last at a big price!

Reluctantly I pass him over as my bet of the day. And I likewise pass over the 1-55 Newcastle which looks another all weather LIM classic potential race. Open for a four horse affair and the fav doesn’t have an obvious advantage over the fact that Jedd O’Keefe runs two against it – one an expensive purchase from the Mrs Harrington yard in Ireland. Sweet Dime is interesting but doesn’t have times to impress and what stops me wanting to oppose Ilhabela Fact is the jockey booking (don’t take Ben Curtis on lightly) and the fact that the horse wins on Standard to Slow all weather surface going which is what it is likely to get on Thursday. My efforts on the all weather are starting to get consistent however so I will be back and am already thinking of a separate service for 2021 that specialises solely on the all weather.

On balance for now, I’ll get back to my more traditional fare over the jumps and  I’ll play this Musselburgh Handicap Chase instead. Reason for liking this as a race is that three of the four runners have fairly strong negatives going on with only Celtic Flames likely to be suited in all departments.

Kings Wharf has had a wind op but is an old monkey for that sort of thing to be influential now and is anyways held on recent form by Ubaltique and also is a serious good ground form performer. I can’t see the wind op helping with a transition to winning on soft! Ubaltique himself is well handicapped for this but has always been a quirky sort and has to give weight to both his juniors as a 12 year old himself now.His big negative however is that his extensive rules career (56 runs) shows a definite bias to showing his form at left handed tracks – predominantly Haydock – and although he has novice hurdle form going right handed, as a chaser there has been an underperform every time going that way round. Affects some horses and he is one.

You could also lay Sword of Fate as another good ground horse but of the three, I am least inclined to lay him a/ obviously because of his price but also b/ his ratings and handicap mark actually give him a fair chance. Recent form less so but with two of the top three struggling with a fundamental negative, it might only take Celtic Flames to fall for him to be a surprise winner. Not a back with that negative ground bias but my idea of LIM cover for Celtic Flames. Double lay time for me again on the other two! 

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on UBALTIQUE (around 3.0)

0.15pt LAY on KINGS WHARF (around 3.5)

0.1pt BACK on CELTIC FLAMES 

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 13/19 = 68.42%  Backs: 4/13 = 30.76%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

19th:   +0.147 (+0.804) Lay @ 1.44 

20th:   -0.34 (+0.464) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 4.4

21st:   +0.047 (+0.511) Lay @ 3.3 : Back @ 10.0

22nd:  +0.54 (+1.051) Lay NOT MATCHED : Back @ 12.0

23rd:   -0.15 (+0.901) Back @ 2.25

24th:   +0.121 (+1.022) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 21.0

25th:   NO BET DAY

26th:   +0.539 (+1.561) Lay @ 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 &13.0 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11 & 12) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill – Entered for Chepstow (Mar 2)

Quick Wave – Entered for Huntingdon (Mar 1)

It’safreebee – Entered for Newbury (Feb 28)

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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