BOZmail – 27th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY DECEMBER 27th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

1-20 KEMPTON

I was right on one and wrong on the other. And stinkingly unlucky in the staggered acca but no damage done on the free bet and there will be another day for Waiting Patiently. He would have won though. Might Bite flopped and we had the winner covered. That’s racing for you. Two staggered accas fallen at the second hurdle but at least Boz is back with an LIM winner and one of only two tipsters in the country tipping Verdana Blue. BOZmail golden rule number one. Look where others do not.

The importance of breaking even highlighted here too. If you haven’t seen my article on that, shout and the source will be supplied. Play to keep cautious so that when we win, all the winnings is profit. No losers to pay for. It’s the way I play. And I might be over cautious at times but I don’t lack bottle. When the champion hurdler is there to be beaten, I do not shy away. Congratulations to all who got the 12/1 or better on offer on the mare. What a price that looks now. Congratulations also if you were less cautious than me and landed La Bague au Roi aswell. Still on my too follow list for the Festival after that. A master ride from the champ.

 

Can we make it two in a row over the Xmas period? Two races again on thursday and I came close to taking on Henderson hotpot again – Adjali at Chepstow – but the slight niggle that he has beaten Quel Destin twice in France does jar. Nicholls has improved Quel Destin however and he does look value against the Henderson horse. Give that race a good look if you like playing more than one LIM per day.

I stick to my discipline however and the one for me to challenge on Thursday is Amy Murphy’s Kalashnikov. Another talking horse underpriced and two serious sorts to take it on with in Dynamite Dollars and Maria’s Benefit. The mare is a really serious sort and a better hurdler in my book. Kalashnikov was 2nd in the Supreme but Mengli Khan let that form down Boxing day. And Maria has a Group 2 to her name and a Listed Chase also. Has taken just as well to chasing to my eye and achieved more – so at the odds of 8/13 and 5/1, I’m with the mare.

Dynamite Dollars must give weight to both after humiliating Lalor LTO and has King George winning jockey up. Not something to overlook that Nicholls won the King George again. After a couple of lean seasons, the big race maestro has some ammo again and DD is one of them. Group 1 Chase winning form in the book. Has to be better value at 7/2 than the unproven Kalashnikov who does make the odd jumping error in admittedly winning his chases easily but not beating much. This is first big test and is mighty short for it. The Boz lays. Not overly sure which of the other two to back as DD has the rating to win but Maria does get a chunk of weight that might tell in the finish. Time for bank management and staking caution after yesterday’s lumpy win.

 

Recommendation:

0.6pt LAY on KALASHNIKOV

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 18.5/24 = 77.08% :   BACKS: 2/16 = 12.5%

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

And go to plan for poor old Ruth and distraught Brian it did not. The horse looked a million dollars to me and I was very confident barring something like what did happen. I felt very sad for Brian to whom that win would have meant an awful lot.Our pockets didn’t suffer. We can do as Malcolm would have and wait for another day. Brian must do same. Chin up Hughesy. I’ll send him a belated Xmas card expressing the commiserations on behalf of all followers of the Bozmail to whom this horse has already been a star.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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