BOZmail 27th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY DECEMBER 27th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/180 = 68.88%  Backs : 35/114 = 30.70%

2-10 WETHERBY

Apologies the Xmas form isn’t its usual zinging self. Picked the wrong race for LIM I’m afraid. Well done if you had the balls to oppose Epatante. I lacked faith to get that beaten although I can see it clear enough with hindsight. I was a bit blinded by Floressa’s presence. Silver Streak did have a chance on the book if Epatante didn’t jump great and like Buveur D’Air before her, she managed to completely bulldoze the hurdle which doesn’t work at speedy Kempton. Cost her the race.

Yet another symptom of this year I fear and when asked why I hadn’t been staking up more on my strong fancies in the past couple of months, my honest answer is I’ve hardly had any strong fancies this year! That hovering uncertainty has prevailed throughout and I do feel still in the having done well to stay above the water line category for 2020. There have been a few notable exceptions but they are mainly hindsight ones (confirming that my picking ability is still in there more than anything) and Iga Swiatek and Lady Bowes/Captain Zebo apart, I do feel it has been a ragged year. Nearly over though!!

Let’s get out without any damage and head into the New Year with a nice clean slate.

Trading in any case has remained steadfast and positive. That is still the way I’m thinking going forward until such time as the status quo returns to racing. Something still very broken about it I fear. My head might be part of that! I think I’ve aged a bit this year what with one thing and another!

Being mega cautious this Sunday with just a small To Follow bet as my LIM and a promising trade bumper horse. Seeing if I can’t end the mini losing streak. First Flow is far from a gimme in this giving weight to most and only a squeak ahead of Nuts Well on figures. I expect a bold ride however and if jumping holds, could repel all oncomers. Steady as she goes stake wise however until I can find an end to the losing streak. 

Recommendations:

0.1pt BACK on FIRST FLOW (around 3.0)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount – Entered for Wetherby (Dec 27)

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame – Entered for Newbury (Dec 29) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 19)

Young Wolf – Entered for Newbury (Dec 29)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar RoseEntered for  Cheltenham (Mar 19)

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line – Entered at Market Rasen (Dec 30)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered at Wetherby (Dec 27)

Get Your Own -Entered for Market Rasen (Dec 30)

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Allart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 18)

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on BOXING DAY:

1-50 KEMPTON – SHAN BLUE @ 15/8 – 0.5pt BACK – 1st

Backed @ 3.15 : hedged 0.25pt @ 2.75 & 0.3pt @ 1.56 : P/L = +0.4695pts

2-05 WETHERBY – SNOW LEOPARDESS @ 9/2 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd 

Backed @ 6.1 : hedged 0.125pt @ 4.35 : 0.5pt @ 1.6 : P/L = +0.3675pts

2-25 KEMPTON – FLORESSA @ 27/1 – 0.2pt BACK -4th

Backed @ 42.0 : hedged 0.3pt @ 22.0 : P/L = +0.098pts

2-45 WINCANTON – SHANG TANG @ 10/3 – 0.2pt BACK – Fell

Backed @ 7.8 : hedged 0.25pt @ 4.7 : P/L = +0.049pts

0.01pt acca for me from the accumulator bank. – LOST

So a good workaday trading to compensate for poor LIM run. The two primed to run best races and be in there at the finish both delivered so my 50% before the off hedges policy worked well on the two identified for it. Shan Blue delivered on promise although a small moment in at the death where flipped out to 4.5 as the Big Breakaway loomed.Jumping held firm however. Another top notch one to sit in the stable alongside Boothill and Cheddleton. I did my At the Death hedge quite high and gave some back when hadn’t needed to but balanced that out with Snow Leopardess who fought valiantly and ran a great race to just go down to one late. Also stays on the list.

Greened out Floressas and Shang Tang easily before the off to secure a solid day. Floressa clearly out of her depth and goes off for a bit now. I missed the chance to lay Epatante in that race also so not my greatest but a profit still. Likewise on Shang Tang who just fell early. Wouldn’t have predicted that but the greened out there proved wise again. Solid day. Just now getting over the fact that Frodon & Waiting Patiently finished 1-2 in the King George! Should have had that but vision failed me again. I did fancy WP a bit each way but didn’t give Frodon a hope of doing his thing. So missed a Nicholls second string concentrating too much on a Henderson one! Hey ho. 

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

3-20 PARRAMOUNT @ 4/1 -0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge accordingly and/or take preferential odds when offered.

As a full relative of Snow Leopardess, I’m quite keen on the bumper form shown FTO at Haydock. Looks set to run another strong race and should be a solid trade proposition. I’ll green out before the off if getting high price and the movement is significant but won’t be afraid to trade in play if needs and will be poised and ready if in at the death again as was LTO.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

20th:     -0.278   (+0.7186) Lay @ 2.52 : Back @ 4.9

21st:     NON RUNNER

22nd:    -0.162   (+0.5566) Lays @ 2.9 & 2.52 : Backs @ 6.4 & 9.2

26th:     -0.253   (+0.3036) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 6.4

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +57.1796points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.6744 points (+12.6744 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 54.4657 points (+46.4657 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1885 points (-0.8115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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