BOZmail – 27th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY TWO:

TUESDAY AUGUST 27th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.0813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +7.1952 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

US OPEN FIRST ROUND MATCH:

Alison Riske v Garbine Muguruza

No let up to the dribble away of August profits so time to really tighten the belt now to protect the month’s score. Konta did wobble second set but served well throughout and the serve was too much for Kasatkina.

Sticking to the principles Tuesday as we take on another heavyweight at odds on. Riske is a grass courter really but as much a hard courter as Muguruza is and they are 1-1 on the back score on the surface and fairly evenly ranked these days as the double slam champ Venezulean is down at 25 continuing to blow hot and cold as is her want. The US Open her least effective slam and hard court just not really her surface. Riske keeps up the form since her wedding that she showed at SW19 in beating Bencic and Barty and she’ll be the value at the price. A price bet again. I’d want odds against to back Muguruza so at 1.75, she represents a modest lay.

Recommendations:

0.3pt LAY on GARBINE MUGURUZA (around 1.75 : no greater than 1.9)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

24th:          NON RUNNER

25th:          +0.045 (+1.1875) Lay @ 1.89 : Backs @ 20.0 & 6.6

26th:           -0.268 (+0.9195) Lay @ 1.67

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 150/225 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 44/154 = 28.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

AUGUST BANK HOLIDAY TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES:

SATURDAY 24th: 5-20 YORK – JAMES WATT @ 33/1 – 0.1pt (Backed@90.0 : Hedged before the off @ 80.0 = zero P/L)

SUNDAY 25th: 4-10 BADEN BADEN – WALDPFAD @ 11/10 – 0.5pt (2nd : No hedge possible)

MONDAY 26th: 4-50 EPSOM – LIGHT UP OUR STARS @ 7/2 – 0.1pt – NON RUNNER

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

 Acca number 18: 

Will shout as the final staggered acca starter emerges.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA (laid at 6.4) 

0.25pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK at (backed at 200.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 180.0)

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF(backed at 85.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 55.0) 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN (backed at 67.0  – 0.25pt laid @30.0)

0.25pt BACK on DANIELLE COLLINS(backed at 250.0 – 0.25pt laid @ 210.0)

Managed to hedge all my outsiders back at preferential odds before the off. Just Serena to concentrate on now starting against Sharapova at midnight tonight!!  

US OPEN FIRST DAY FAV TREBLE:

Catherine McNally to beat Timea Bacsinszky @ 1.54

Angelique Kerber to beat Krystina Mladenovic @ 1.3

Maria Sakkari to beat Camila Giorgi @ 1.57

                          Composite odds around 3.1431 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt

SECOND DAY FAV TREBLE:

Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Timea Babos @ 1.69

Belinda Bencic to beat Mandy Minella @ 1.13

Julia Goerges to beat Natalie Vikhlyantseva @ 1.43

                         Composite odds around 2.7308 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt

US OPEN FIRST DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES:  

Lin Zhu to beat Xi Wang @ 2.56

Eugenie Bouchard to beat Anastasia Sevastova @ 4.6 – LOST – no chance to hedge

US OPEN SECOND DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES: 

Pauline Parmentier to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 3.05

Sorana Cirstea to beat Kateryna Siniakova @ 4.0

Alexandra Krunic to beat Jelena Ostapenko @ 2.88

0.25pt BACK start on each. Go green when presented and be ready to ping pong if the yoyo starts!

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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