BOZmail 27th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY AUGUST 27th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.3879 points (+2.3879 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.5871 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.8747 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 46/60 = 76.66%  Backs : 8/29 = 27.58%

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LESS IS MORE

2-50 SEDGEFIELD

Wednesday’s Recommendation: 0.25pt BACK on CUSTARD THE DRAGON (around 11.0 or best price you can get to be hedged as appropriate when preferential offer occurs either in segments or as a whole)

Backed @ 12.82 & 15.00 & 0.05pts@ 26.0 : hedged 0.4pts @ 8.15 & 0.35pts @ 11.0 : P/L = +0.196pts

Those of you who have followed me through Ostapenko tennis trades will have taken the hint perhaps that the way to go when the price is yoyoing like it did pre race on Custard is keep taking when high and laying when low. I did it twice only pre race (once prior to the first batch of non runner declarations) although there were in actual fact five or six serious chances and I did it in two lumps rather than segmenting just because of the time I had for market watch and having got an initial excellent disparity of lay at 12.82 and hedge at 8.15, I went for a break even on my second fairly speedy trade backing at 15 and taking back at 11 which left me coming to the ten minutes before the off with a +0.095 in the event of a win and +0.25 in the event of defeat and then saw the price drift like a drain again before the off so had 0.05pts @26.0 to hedge in running should he show something the market was patently not expecting. And he did, running on ahead of four of those who took their chance with him and finishing 3rd without ever getting into a chance of winning the race nor giving me my in running hedge opportunity. So I lost 0.05pt of my potential trade profit on a defeat but no begrudging that and I actually think he ran a fine race again and very much gets to stay on the list for that! No doubt he’ll be looking for a chance to run again on the all weather at Southwell ASAP and he looks a fine betting prospect for as and when that occurs.

The one thing I overlooked when I studied on Tuesday was the draw which didn’t favour him and perhaps explained his unpopularity in the market. I don’t think it stopped him running his race however. The ground was also very testing and if you saw the first two races, you’ll have seen the strung out like washing aspect. He did ok on it the old boy and continues as a great earner for the BOZmail. Keep him in your trackers for NTO!! Not the speediest sort but all heart and tries all day. My kind of horse with a superb name to boot!

Back over jumps at Sedgefield Thursday and Arthur’s Sixpence goes for the four timer just six days after his win at Fontwell to try to defeat a further rise in the weights due at the weekend. He’s already up 7lb for LTO and at another front running track like Sedgefield, going like he did LTO, he might win again. Very short though. As short as 11/10 with Bet 365 and at that price I’m definitely a layer. His time before last he just scrambled home against Lough Har who let the side down for us on Monday and this is in any case a much tougher test than his Fontwell effort. Up a grade and taking on seasoned handicappers Alexander the Grey, Before Midnight and Scoop the Pot which are the shortlist’s three for the tricast and of those I like the value on Lily Pinchin to pinch it from the front as is Alexander the Grey’s way. At worst gonna give Arthur some company up front to set it up for a closer perhaps.

My back is on the to follow list’s novice – Oscar Rose – who is timed to thrash these if able to replicate the effort behind Leoncavallo LTO. Pipe’s horse then went on to win on the flat at Haydock you’ll remember. Needs to jump and that won’t be as easy here but Brennan on board who is a big positive at the minute. Very hopeful of a land here.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on ARTHUR’S SIXPENCE (around 2.4 but shorter if you can get it)

0.1pt BACK on OSCARS ROSE (around 5.5) 

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

24th:     -0.65   (+0.9328) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 16.0

25th:    +0.4017 (+1.3345) Back @ 9.05

26th:    +0.196  (+1.5304) Back @ 12.82 : Lay @ 8.15 etc

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Goodwood (Aug 29)

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered at Fontwell(Aug 28)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Perth (Aug 30)

Samsons Reach -Entered for Southwell (Aug 31)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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