BOZmail – 27th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY APRIL 27th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-25 LEICESTER

Our thanks to the horse not the jockey (aptly missed the c out of that when I typed it up to start with!) on Friday to keep the winning run going. Mick Fitzgerald described Maxwell as a pantomime dame with his ‘behind you’ look after the last which I had a chuckle at. Wouldn’t have been laughing if he’d caused the horse to lose though. Fortunately he does own some rather nice horses! And he tries hard and is a degree slicker than he used to be to be fair to him. Rides better than me! (not hard).

Another difficultish day for LIM on Saturday as we employ BOZmail golden rule number one and avoid the class at Sandown and elsewhere and attempt this puzzle at Leicester. Not because it’s any easier but it is a serious competitive heat and so ideal for LIM if we can lay one of the front two. I’ve run the rule heavily over both and arguably you could try taking on the two to level stakes lay as they are pretty difficult to split. I rarely go against the Gosden/Dettori combination however and consider Frankie nobody’s pantomime dame but rather a better jockey now than he’s ever been and he has always been absolute top drawer. Buick is obviously also rather cool however and Appleby’s horses in best fettle of these but the one slight negative for me with him – given that both are over to turf for the first time so could baulk at that – is that being a son of Dubawi doesn’t lend him to being a given mile and a halfer in my eyes. So I’ll stick with Dettori of the two on a horse who has proven he stays.

The reason they may both get beat is that Cape Islay and Aspire Tower have a shout and even Wanaasah won’t be far away. Cape Islay has the turf experience at a required level and Aspire Tower has the second best jockey currently riding in the UK to my eyes on board for a stable with a 100% horses running to form score albeit from just one runner. Both of these will need to prove they stay as well but have as much chance on breeding as Moonlight Spirit has. Both are competitive on times over 1m 2f and Aspire Tower particularly shines in the speed figures department. He is the value price and gets my small back selection over which I have more confidence than the lay selection unusually. Keeping that to minimum stake.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on MOONLIGHT SPIRIT ( around 2.4 ; not greater than 2.9)

0.1pt BACK on ASPIRE TOWER

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

21st:     +0.194 (+2.346)LAY @ 2.62 : BACK @ 28.0

22nd:    +0.686 (+3.032)LAY @ 1.7

23rd:     +0.194 (+3.226)LAY @ 2.7

24th:     +1.092 (+4.318)LAY @ 1.7 : BACKS @ 4.5 & 9.0

25th:     +0.745 (+5.063)LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 6.0

26th:     +0.24 (+5.303)LAY @ 2.96

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 95/131 = 72.51% :   BACKS: 22/85 = 25.88%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action

King of Comedy

Land of Legends

Edaraat

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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