BOZmail – 26th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 26th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

7-30 CHELMSFORD

Got one right Wednesday but despite lots more to choose from Thursday, things remain September trappy and I’ve struggled to settle on one I’m strong on. Perth’s three qualifiers are all minefields and Pontefract likewise have some potential end of season dog meat on show (sorry – tasteless I know but an old slang of my Dad’s that I find hard to shift!). There is a class race at Newmarket to enjoy with our to follow qualifier on show that is included in the trading section below.

For LIM however I have settled on this Fillies Handicap at Chelmsford with a value possible in Bint Dandy whose current form is uninspiring but who is spectacularly well handicapped now and must surely come in again soon. Worth a small speculative punt paid for by the lay on fav Universal Effect who has switched stables since following his win here by carrying the 6lb penalty to third place at Kempton for which she is raised another pound. Former trainer David Lanigan runs City of Love against her and will have a line on things whilst bang in form John Gosden runs one of his very unexposed lesser lights in Mary Somerville who could be anything and dropped back in trip and is to be watched in the market. Zafaranah is the race’s highest rated horse but may have a task on at the weights.

Small stakes day again as I seek to get out of September in the black without taking unnecessary risk. Better class jumps racing is not far away now. 

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on UNIVERSAL EFFECT (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.3)

0.1pt BACK on BINT DANDY

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

19th:    +1.595 (+0.4225) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 10.0

20th:    +0.245 (+0.6675) Lay @ 2.38

21st:     +0.527(+1.1945) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 4.8

22nd:    -0.2 (+0.9945) Back @ 4.0

23rd:     NO PLAY DAY

24th:     -0.392 (+0.6025) Lay @ 2.96

25th:     +0.245(+0.8475) Lay @ 3.05

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 163/249 = 65.46% :   BACKS: 48/168 = 28.57%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.96 points. 

Will shout as and when new starter emerges.      

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered for Musselburgh (Sep 29)

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on THURSDAY:

3-35 NEWMARKET – LORD OF THE LODGE @ 2/1 – 0.5pt BACK

But for doubt about the ground, I might have gone staggered acca starter about this. He wants good to firm and with rain around, good is maybe best he’ll get. That might blunt his speed according to the formbook but the extra furlong might compensate for that if he takes to it as his breeding suggests he might. Front running will also help I think and the form of the Gimcrack means he is the standout here if he reproduces it.

There are a couple of dangers in Monoski and Ropey Guest and Wichita is a dark horse so it could be a good race and I leave you to decide on whether to trade or just to back this. His Gimcrack run was top drawer and this is a drop in class so he can be regarded as a possible good thing but September,ground and distance do introduce some doubts so I’ll be tempted to go the usual route of back at best price you can get and hedge in running. Front running style should allow a good profit to be gleaned either way.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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