BOZmail 26th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 26th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +17.0184 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.5121 points (+5.5121 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 20.4918 points (+12.4918 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 81/114 = 71.05%  Backs : 21/69 = 30.43%

1-05 MARKET RASEN

Hiconic looks to hold the field here. Soldier on Parade has improved since they last met but has to give weight as well now and has a big form turnaround to engender. Murphy stable is firing and if the market is anything like Friday’s, money might come for that one and make Hiconic a good price. Keep an eye out for that. Talking About you well held and the other two no hopers. So on the book, to follow horse Hiconic is a good thing with the only possible negative that he has gone over for the season now. Straight back for me and only lay Soldier on Parade if the silly money that came for Simply Loveleh comes again.

What did you make of Friday’s market watch? I get asked quite often what causes a run on a horse’s price and sometimes I have absolutely no idea! You saw the way Simply Loveleh ran but they backed him before the off like he couldn’t possibly get beat! He was held by the winner on my figures and if you played that at 8.0 and bigger, well done you. My prettylittlething was an accurate market guide as got some 55.0 about her but obviously not race fit. Paddock watch required there and haven’t those been a serious casualty of this year. Did run on into 4th at the death however beating Takingitallin (also ran like a dying snail) and the inexplicable fav. Basically just three horses fit for the race. That’s September for you. So much to be taken on trust and just like the world’s political leaders at the moment, trust is in short supply.

Anything can happen. As always, it is a case of follow the value. The value on Absolute Jaffa was blinding. Prettylittlething makes the to follow list as they may not back NTO either but ran to suggest might come to herself sometime soon. Well handicapped now.

The BOZ keeps it simple Saturday and just backs Hiconic and the to follow trade highlighted below. Rest of the day will be spent studying the French Open tennis draw. More on that on Sunday’s sheet. Starts live on ITV 4 for two glorious weeks!

I’m salivating at the thought! Full coverage on THE BOZmail!

Recommendation:

0.15pt BACK on HICONIC (get the best price you can. Odds against if possible)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

24th: +0.147 (+0.6671) Lay @ 3.0

25th: +0.098 (+0.7651) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 55.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Hiconic – Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAY on SATURDAY:

2-45 MARKET RASEN – PISGAH PIKE @ 10/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered 

Big hike up into Listed class and not overly expected to win because of that but you never know. Market might fancy it because has been impressive in its two runs this season and does look potentially progressive. So take a bit early and hedge that if the money comes is the advice. Distinctly a trade play unless you see something to inspire going in on a gung ho back.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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