BOZmail – 26th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY OCTOBER 26th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.236 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-20 CHELTENHAM

Well no regrets about Friday’s play and I managed odds on the winner so my double lay showed a mini profit to justify its existence although to be honest,now I’ve seen it I should have had the gumption to stand by the Ascot form that said Al Dancer held the Nicholls horse. He certainly does. And wasn’t it typical that with two debutantes on show, the worst jumping blips came from Caius Marcius – for whom it was of course a big test with having to give weight away. Would have been a colossal achievement if he’d won and he was far from disgraced. The ones to take out of the race however were Al Dancer who looks a Twisty serious contender and a real Cheltenham natural and the Skelton horse who was sketchy early and did look a bit outpaced at the top of the hill but who came home well and jumped far better than the Nicholls horse under pressure. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but it is clear now that the LIM wisdom was to tell Trump where he could stick himself and use his lay to guarantee an overall profit rather than just the lay profit.

No big damage done however and we had a crack at a proper one as I like to do now and again. Back to the task of eeking and grinding out further October plusses in the final six days of the month.

This ain’t an easy Saturday but this Cheltenham offers another small play to recover a bit of yesterday as we stay in profit protection mode. The two chasers coming here to open their seasons in a novice hurdle look opposable and of the two I take Ramses De Teillee on – last seen pulling up in the Grand National. A consistent sort and a trier but likely to find the pace hard in this unless it becomes a quagmire. Murphy’s The Butcher Said looks a worthy fav whilst the Irish raider Macgiloney is a dark horse with a chance under trainer/jockey Mr Hogan whilst our old mate Noble Glance turns out again. Can he spring another 50/1 shock in a small field? We oppose the Pipe horse small and have another Northern Raider outsider to trade in the To follow section.

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on RAMSES DE TEILLEE (around 3.3 : no greater than 3.7) 

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 179/272 = 65.80% :   BACKS: 52/185 = 28.10%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

23rd:   +0.146 (+3.108) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 4.2

24th:   +0.196 (+3.304) Lay @ 4.3

25th:   -0.092 (+3.212) Lays @ 1.96 & 2.36 : Back @ 15.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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HORSE TO FOLLOW AT CHELTENHAM on SATURDAY:

2-35 CHELTENHAM – KAIZER – 0.1pt BACK @22/1 or better

Similar to Caius Marcius yesterday, Kaizer comes down South to test himself against the best. I’ve honestly no idea how he’ll get on but he was very impressive LTO and owes us nothing already. And he’s a front runner so he’ll offer us some hedge potential. Take as big a price as you can get and hedge in running. Educational if nothing else.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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