BOZmail 26th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

MONDAY OCTOBER 26th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +37.4735 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.8092 points (+7.8092 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 39.0498 points (+31.0498 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7635 points (-0.2365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 97/133 = 72.93%  Backs : 25/81 = 30.86%

12-30 AYR

I’ll start with the negatives. This is Lady Bowes’ first go in public over hurdles. I’ve seen her schooling and she looks ok but you never know until they hit the track and have to start doing it at racing pace. She’ll either take to it or she won’t so this isn’t a bet with all the knowledge in place. There is also the slight concern that her two good runs have come at right handed tracks. At both Hexham and here at Ayr – both left handed tracks – she did get tapped for toe before running on again at the end. Dropped the bit maybe. It was the running on at the end at Hexham FTO that caught my eye though and that surfaced again in her 100/1 place effort at Carlisle and likewise at Ayr and Perth. So maybe going left handed isn’t an issue. Too early to be sure yet. But if you remember For Pleasure the other day, big deal for some horses that they go the right way round the track!

Perhaps more the issue with LB is her wilful headstrong craziness. That desire to do her own thing that saw her bolt to the start at Hexham (losing the race in the process) and even in her win at Perth, saw a duck off toward the stables half way round! Considering the antics before the start at Hexham, I considered that a good run and still do. So the race at Ayr bears more critical study but of course I rate the form of that race. Timetoroe has come out since and hacked up at Bangor. She’s a Rocca has been less inspiring but is one who has found jumping hurdles a bit of a challenge. A learning curve. Is getting better slowly. It could be like that for Lady Bowes too of course. Tomorrow tells us.

Also in that race was Charm Offensive who was out with the washing five furlongs out but finished like an express train to pinch second and nearly first on the line. She ran the heavy ground that day better than Lady Bowes did although both were noted staying on strongly at the end. Been waiting for Charm Offensive to come out and she was entered for this but sidesteps it and Nick Alexander runs a rag instead. Interesting.

Because although Lady Bowes did look second best to three that day, she still ran ok if the dropped bit (or the heavy ground) was the cause for the getting tapped for toe and quite possible the front three all benefited from the race distance and the heavy ground. Timetoroe’s win at Bangor supports that theory. Neither She’s a Rocca nor Charm Offensive have run on heavy ground since. We go in on them when they do!

Because Lady Bowes has since then proved that she is the good one I thought she might be.That headstrong craziness can also be a plus in the right hands! We get on to the positives now! The horse she beat at Perth did get a bit of interference in running but was odds on that day because she had form in three previous races that all stacks up. Behind that classy mare of Ruth Jefferson’s that ran third at Cheltenham behind Galvin on Friday and another horse I rate very highly called Zakharova. Been off the track a while now that one but definitely top drawer.Also form behind Alpha Carinae who we got beat the other day but only because of its penalty. Another good one.

And Headscarf Lil came with her run at Perth and Lady Bowes saw it off in determined fashion. On the soft ground rather than the heavy. That’s the optimum for her and she gets that at Ayr tomorrow. More rain forecast there but not enough to bring about heavy you wouldn’t say. Sunshine intervals in the forecast too.

I’d say the main positive though – apart from the time of that race at Perth which holds up well – was the introduction of Charlotte Jones in the saddle. If Lady Bowes has them dreaming dreams at Pitt Farm so does Miss Jones. No accident that she is a seven pound claimer – who brings that weight advantage into the ring tomorrow – who has a 16% strike rate. She’s learned fast under Moffat’s tutorial and works every day in the yard, riding and mucking out and being listened to by Jimmy who knows what he has on his hands there. She is top drawer or near to that now. Still very young and from Barrow-in-Furness which isn’t known as horse country but has its famous sports stars. Most notably Emlyn Hughes who loved his racing. Stood behind him in the queue for the phone to his bookmaker once at Cartmel races. After he’d finished his call (good old days before mobiles!), he turned to smile at me as he handed over the receiver and winked a ‘Be Lucky’ with that infectious grin of his. A gentleman from the dockside roots of Barrow – a solid working class town that sports his statue now in Bronze as its modern day centrepiece. Charlotte is in the same mold. And the difference she made on LB’s back was palpable. When the madame did that jink out towards the stables, Charlotte was strong. Got her mind straight back on her job. The finish they rode together was textbook and like I say, it was a good one they beat.

So up to now, my prediction that we are following the fortunes of the 2024 Grand National winner (maybe 2025 or 26!)holds firm. Coming along slowly in the right direction and has a big test in front of her on Monday.

I’ve done my best to run the rule over the opposition. Obviously Nicholls sends one up from Ditcheat and Gordon Elliot and the champ represented which I am hoping works in our favour market wise. LB is the winner in the field so that might conceivably make her favourite although I’m hoping the stable factor prevents that.

Both big yards have other runners at the meet so that we can hope these aren’t the reason they have come! Both look beatable on paper with Nicholls’ Whiskey Lullaby potentially the main danger. I’m tracking her PTP form in the 4-30 at Wexford on Sunday where her conqueror is entered in a bumper after fluffing his hurdle debut. More on that and prices at the end of this when I have the requisite gen.

Times have Whiskey Lullaby and Lady Bowes on a par and I’m hoping that if the Nicholls horse is a good one, that 7lb weight claim might make the difference there. Orient Sunset is held on that bumper form from Ayr whilst Etoile D’Ecosse looks a rag out for the experience.Wild Polly has possibilities on her point win but looks bred for further and like Whiskey Lullaby, also has the lay off to overcome. Is the most experienced in the field though arguably although Elliot’s also has a run over hurdles to her name. Not a distinguished one however (may enjoy the softer ground here)!

So over to you Lady B! Show us what you’ve got. It looks there for her maybe if she jumps and I await only what value there is in her price.

It’s a faith bet for me. Like Iga Swiatek in the tennis. I saw something early in the careers of all three ladies that made me want to bet them whenever they entered their respective sporting arenas. Charlotte Jones,Iga Swiatek,Lady Bowes. 

Ten points to the first person who emails in the name of the last mare to win the Grand National. And/or the female jockey who has so far gotten closest to winning it!

On my tissue, I have Lady Bowes 5/2 or 3/1. That’s what I’m hoping for. More later once the tissue is out and that Wexford result is in.   

Well, I’ve left the above as is even though it does make me look a bit of a plonker because the Bet 365 tissue is now in and they go 8/13 Whiskey Lullaby and 7/1 Lady Bowes. I nearly fell off my chair! Even though I’m used to them overpricing Moffat’s horses (still no idea why they do that. It is endemic), I hadn’t expected 7/1.

Needless to say I chomped it before going to look for reasons and its fair to say I wrote all the above without an awareness this was over 2m 4f. All my calculations were based on 2m so either they just changed the distance of the race or I failed to spot it was over further! Does look like the latter and I can see the reasoning as breeding of both Whiskey Lullaby and Elliot’s horse leans toward improvement over further. Wild Polly most of all though. And Lady Bowes is not without stamina in her breeding on the sire’s side and does her best work late over two miles. And if I’m right about Grand National, not an issue either perhaps. But it does give the Nicholls mountain of a mare a different sort of chance for big improvement coming from his yard than I allowed for. Even so, 7/1 is good. I’m not wholly deterred. Just means I can stake less to win what I was planning!! It still all depends on the jumping!

And I go double lay on the big two because neither is value given that both are in the same league as LB in having to prove they can jump. Lady Bowes is brilliant value. And Wild Polly is decent LIM cover. So the BOZ is still having a bet. The Wexford race by the way proved the Whiskey Lullaby PTP form doesn’t add up to much. Her conqueror out with the washing again. No speed for Rules racing. That makes Whiskey Lullaby a serious odds on lay.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on WHISKEY LULLABY (around 1.6 or 1.7 but no worries if Bet 365 have gone too short. Happy to lay at any odds on price)

0.12pt LAY on CLASS BISHOP LADY (around 2.9)

0.1pt BACK on LADY BOWES (around 8.0 and you might get better if history is anything to go by) 

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6 

23rd: NO BET

24th:  +0.049  (+2.0551) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 5.5

25th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR) – Entered @ Longchamp (Oct 25) – finished 6th

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Oct 29)

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie     

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly – Entered @ Newton Abbot (Oct 29)

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Oct 30)

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE at Aintree on Sunday:

3-42 CAIUS MARCIUS @ 9/1 – 0.1pt BACK – NON RUNNER

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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