BOZmail – 26th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 26th  2019 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

*******************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

**************************************************

THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.5657 points

*************************************************

BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.628 points

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

1-00 SOUTHWELL

 An interesting Handicap Chase at Southwell with a proposed double LAY element and arguably a double BACK also from the 5 runners although I’ll content myself I think with a value single back on Glance Back who holds Shintori on a line through Lickpenny Larry. The Bishop charge might have stamina issues here but that also applies to penalised even money favourite Battleofthesomme and also to my other back possible Champion Chase.

When you add in the penalties Battleofthesomme and Shintori face, you can see the arguments about both of those getting beat although of the two, I’d give Shintori the edge with stamina proven and I’m staking such that his victory will be a break even.

Battleofthesomme’s LTO win was over our old mate Wenceslaus who gave over a stone and wasn’t beaten far. Snowden’s horse has to give the weight this time to Champion Chase which might prove problematic but the bigger issue really is the step up to two and a half miles which has stopped him in his tracks in the past with no proof that Snowden has corrected that in the improvement he has found in races that were both tipped in his favour in the way they were framed. Step up looks a distinct attempt at starting the slide back down the handicap and so even money is outrageously short. I take that on without qualm! It will pay for the other three planned bets in classic LIM style if I am right.

Recommendations:

0.5pt LAY on BATTLEOFTHESOMME (around 2.0 : no greater than 2.2)

0.15pt LAY on SHINTORI (around 3.3 or shorter : no greater than 3.5)

0.1pt BACK on GLANCE BACK (best price 10.0 early with BET 365)

0.01pt REVERSED FORECAST – GLANCE BACK & CHAMPION CHASE

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 201/301 = 66.77% :   BACKS: 53/201 = 26.36%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

13th:  +0.596 +(1.5565) Lay @ 2.48 : Back @ 5.0

14th:  +0.147 (+1.7035) Lay @ 3.0

15th:   +0.095 (+1.7985) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 14.5

16th:   +0.245 (+2.0435) Lay @ 2.6

17th:   +0.143 (+2.1865) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 3.0

18th:    -0.332 (+1.8545) Lay @ 1.52 : Backs @6.0 & 26.0

19th:    +0.22 (+2.0745) Lay @ 1.89 : Back @ 36.0

20th:     -0.495 (+1.5795) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 8.0

21st:     +0.046(+1.6255) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 3.3

22nd:    -0.15 (+1.4755) Back @ 4.5

23rd:     +0.243 (+1.7185) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 8.0

24th:     +0.245 (+1.9635) Lay @ 4.0

25th:     +0.294 (+2.2575) Lay @ 4.0

*****************************************************  

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

12-50 SEDGEFIELD – EMMA LAMB – around even money – 0.35pt stake.

All the hallmarks of a Dr Newland/STD lay out getting sex allowance from all with first run for stable and trip to Sedgefield as big trend tips. Actually looks well in on times and ratings too so worth taking price early as could well be hammered in betting. Not intending a concerted staggered acca effort as the year winds down but do want to put it in the black for the year where it has been on numerous occasions without ever quite landing us the intended hoo-har bet. Its final swansong before removal in 2020 you might say! I do still stand by the concept. Just hasn’t worked as well  hand in hand with daily LIM as I’d hoped.

*******************************************************

WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC – Entered at Hereford (Nov 27)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Newbury (Nov 29) & Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh 

Wenceslaus 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Ribble Valley – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 27)

Kid Commando 

Up The Straight

Flaming Charmer

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on MONDAY:

1-20 MUSSELBURGH – TOKARAMORE @ 6/1 – 0.1pt BACK

(Backed @ 7.6 : hedged in running 0.2pt @ 3.0) = P/L : +0.098pt

Don’t know about you but at no point did I think Tokaramore would win and I had no problem hedging out to advantage at 3.0 – sacrificing 0.4 of my projected 0.66 points profit if he did win. Ran well enough but ostensibly handicapped out of his chance for a while now so comes off the to follow list accordingly to perhaps come back on as his handicap mark lowers in the future. 

*****************************************************

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *