BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail
Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.
SUNDAY MAY 26th 2019
LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
Stood at 26.0 points after month 1
Stood at 25.83 points after month 2
Stood at 27.28 points after month 3
Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4
Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5
LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY
4-15 FONTWELL
Sort of did stick with the women’s jockey thread Saturday and Bryony rode us a cracker once more to get Inchcolm beat after Morning Royalty was withdrawn. Moffatt’s Mega Double went out worringly in the earlier race and got my eye on that for the rest of the meeting. Becky Smith second in our race. She’s nearly as good as Bryony!
No women riding in Sunday’s race and have had a glut of small field jump races to choose from and picked this one to study in depth a/ because it’s a handicap chase at Fontwell – my fav type of race bar none and b/ because it is the least runner race of the day. The reason LIM was invented! I can spend ages looking at all three runners from all angles and I have done!
Adrrastos can be taken on by the other two of which Storm Home is a legitimate hunch fancy but not really borne out by the formbook. Jockeys could be key however and Harry Cobden is my male Bryony Frost and could easily bring Storm Home up the hill. It is the hill that worries me re Adrrastos as his form looks best over 2 miles and any further or any hint of required stamina does tend to find him out. He will get all the necessary from the saddle with Coleman on board but I was at Cartmel Saturday and delighted to see Adrian Heskin back on the course and riding winners. He rode a peach in the first and another later from the front which just got bobbed but he is a cool jock who I rate high and he rides my form pick in the race I’dliketheoption who holds a time plus and looks more suited to the likely stamina test at the finish that Fontwell always presents.
Recommendation:
0. 5pt LAY on ADRRASTOS (around 1.96 : no greater than 2.2)
0.1pt BACK on IDLIKETHEOPTION
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This month plays so far:
1st: -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82
2nd: -0.3 (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6
3rd: -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0
4th: -0.8 (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0
5th: +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0
6th: -0.3 (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2
7th: +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1
8th: +0.19 (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95
9th: -0.825 (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4
10th: NO PLAY DAY
11th: +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92
12th: -0.24 (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6
13th: +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2
14th: -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5
15th: +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0
16th: +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0
17th: +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00
18th: -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0
19th: +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0
20th: +0.145 (+0.56) Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0
21st: -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66
22nd: +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4
23rd: +0.48 (+1.002) BACK @ 1.96
24th: -0.215 (+0.787) Lay @ 1.86
25th: +0.196(+0.983) Lay @ 2.76
BLWM LIM strike rates: LAYS: 106/155 = 68.38% : BACKS: 27/99 = 27.27%
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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:
Get out the Gate
Shoal Bay
Commodore Barry
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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:
Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)
Eightsome Reel
Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)
Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)
Raise You
Charl Brune
Barney Roy
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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points
Stands at 10 points.
Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 5)
4-50 YORK – LAY on ARCTIC FOX – LOST
Well done to those who read the market better than me and stayed out.
The Boz is bruised but it was bookmaker’s money so never quite so
hard to take. I shall regroup and have a think about whether I start an
11th staggered acca. They have been hard work all year but the idea
is sound and my bank is still as it started. Likely I will try again. Just
give me a while to get over this. What went wrong? Fahey’s horse was
an improver. Stable knew that. Gosden’s horse and Quintada weren’t
even players. Busy scraping the egg off my face.
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Good Luck with your bets.
BOZ
The BOZmail golden rules:
1/ Try to look where others do not.
2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)
3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)
4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.
5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.
6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).
7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.
“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.” Boz
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THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:
PLAYER PRICE TAKEN HEDGED AT CURRENT P/L
| Simona HALEP | 1pt LAY@5.6 | -5.2 | |
| ANISIMOVA | 0.1pt BACK@120.0 | +12.4 | |
| QIANG WANG | 0.1pt BACK @340.0 | +34.4 | |
| Iga SWIATEK | 0.1pt BACK @151.0 | +15.5 | |
| VAN UYTVANCK | 0.1pt BACK @1000 | +100.4 | |
| Polona HERCOG | 0.1pt BACK @1000 | +100.4 | |
| LauraSIEGEMUND | 0.1pt BACK @1000 | +100.4 | |
| ROF | +0.4 | ||
| Azarenka (3rd Rd) | |||