BOZmail 26th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JULY 26th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.5468 points (+0.5468 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.2305 points (+6.2305 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.03 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.6633 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.9509 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 28/37 = 75.67%  Backs : 2/14 = 14.28%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Friday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SOLDIER OF LOVE (around 3.0. Take best price you can get)

0.075pt BACK on MR MAFIA (around 3.75 or better if possible) 

Trade play: Laid @2.3  (averaged) : Hedged @ 2.5 : P/L = +0pts

                      Back@5.0                       : Hedged @ 4.5  :  P/L = +0pts

Total Trade P/L = +  0pts                (+0.3383pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L = -0.27pts     (+0.1535pts)

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Saturday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MONDAIN ( around 2.8 and lower if you can get it. A tad higher no problem if it has to be)

Laid @ 3.7 : Hedged 0.08pt @ 6.6 : P/L = +0.07 or +0.043 (less commission)

0.05pt BACK on SEXY BEAST (around 15.0)

Backed @ 14.0 : Hedged 0.07pt @ 9.6 : P/L = +0.048pts or 0.02pts (less commission)

4-3 still to the non traders who might go 5-3 up if the market has got this one right. The price on Mondain drifted like a barge from the early tissue I saw pre 2pm Friday.

Didn’t see any of the market watch myself so don’t know if I was too late informing you for you to get any lay price on him. My seeder has greened out on both already and it is his position I post above and will settle to. He also reports playing free bets on both Friday when both prices didn’t move a great deal although Mr Mafia did definitely drift late but he was already greened when that happened. Needless to say,

I played traditional on Friday’s and lost and am simply not on Saturday’s as the internet only returned here 9am Saturday morning with reports that the service maybe off again intermittently over the weekend. Some trouble removing the disgraced 5G from the exchanges no doubt! Don’t understand and don’t want to know! Totally fed up with politics.

So I will call it Blank Friday for me and am probably going cautious this weekend despite originally planning a go at Cartmel on Sunday. The shortlist scored six winners at Newton Abbot on Friday (and three good ones day before at Uttoxeter)

and I missed them all because of the downtime and when it goes like that, I know Murphys is on me. I mentioned him on here the other day and along he comes. I take the positives from it. At least I know the NH systems are still reliable and can take heart that lockdown has not done the same damage there that it has on the flat.

I shall pause. I still go ahead with the small plays at Cartmel I already prepared including the LIM (see below). My attempt at a week of lays went down with Bryony’s excellent ride on Soldier of Love. I did get that one wrong and was impressed with how the young horse responded to the galvanising of his excellent rider. He had to be good to get up in that and goes on my list as a result but I still blame STD for blowing it with a poor leap at the last and that Bryony wasn’t in my calculations when I went against Soldier in Love I blame Murphys. Just one of those days. A serious blank out at  BOZ Towers. It happens. Get up and learn from it and tomorrow is another day.

Scary how reliant I’ve become on the internet however. Impotent without it. How did it get like that?

3-10 CARTMEL

Shortlisters be notified that I have taken Cartmel off the publishing list as it is a messy compilation with two No Selection races in it and have decided to simply play the LIM and the local track factor runners from the Moffat yard. Cartmel is officially a subs bench track for the shortlist anyways and in view of what happened yesterday and not wanting to give back the Newton Abbot gains, I’ve decided to stay tight this weekend with threats of further internet blackouts here. I’m posting the BOZmail early and shutting up shop until Monday. Monday’s sheet will appear on Monday morning all being well.

This was always my LIM play for Sunday and I try to get the LIM lay of the day back on track taking on Licklighter here who hails from a stable in form but is and will likely stay very short because of that. He has negatives in the penalty to be carried but more pertinently in that his form shows a preference for two and a half miles so the speedway track that is Cartmel’s circle could easily catch him out. Also has to give Fort De L’Ocean a bundle of weight which gives the Greenall runner a real chance against him. The opposition can all have holes picked in them however and Peter Bowen’s charge would definitely have a chance but for the fact that he can’t buy a winner at the moment. He has a strong record at Cartmel historically and his losing spell has to end sometime so his runner is undoubtedly value. I would back it in buoyant mood but I’m not in that as you’ll have already gathered. I take Fort De L’Ocean as my main chance to get the fav beat but not with any great conviction. Just how things feel at the moment. Stakes are thus minimal once more and I may well trade rather than play traditionally. Just in a don’t want another loser mood!

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on LICKLIGHTER (around 2.3 or as low as you can get)

LOCAL TRACK FACTOR BETS:

1-25 CARTMEL – APTLY PUT @ around 8/1 – 0.05pt WIN

4-55 CARTMEL – NATIVE FIGHTER @ around 8/1 – 0.05pt WIN

                              – MEGA DOUBLE @ around 8/1 – 0.05pt WIN

0.025pt EACH WAY DOUBLE = TOTAL STAKE : 0.2pt

I’m less keen on these than I had hoped to be after Thursday didn’t quite go to plan. As ever with Jimmy, reading his expectations is tough. Mega Double could easily be a non runner out again three days later but if he turns out I definitely back (and the each way double becomes a perm play) as he is the only one of the four NH runners Jimmy has so far sent out to underperform and that ran like he needed the outing on Thursday. Came into the race but couldn’t go on.

I also play the reversed forecast in the 4-55 if they both go.Jimmy loves to pull that bet and has done so many a time at Cartmel. Native Fighter looks the call on the day having had his cobweb remover on the flat since lockdown and although carrying a penalty for his win here LTO over hurdles, is down in class,has stable jockey booked claiming seven to nullify the penalty a tad (although she also rode when he won so the penalty stands in reality) and does look on paper like a feasible winner. All three make the shortlist so I don’t know whether to be optimistic or not. But you never do with Jimmy really. As with the shortlist, you have to keep the faith! It certainly paid yesterday for those that do (and had an internet service to rely on. Mine has just dipped out temporarily this morning so I’m getting off to post ASAP)

Good LUCK with your bets.

BOZ 

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

23rd:  +0.098   (+0.774) Lay @ 2.26

24th:   -0.27     (+0.504) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 5.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE on SATURDAY:

4-45 Ascot – COLLINSBAY @ 9/4 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are on offer.

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE on SUNDAY:

3-40 Ascot – ON MY WAY @ 25/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are on offer.

Been waiting a while for this one to come out. Goes right up in class but was very impressive when seen last month and could be another Muker in theory. With that in mind, take at astronomical back odds,hedge a bit back when appropriate before the off when preferential odds are offered and save a bit for the possibility that he’ll be in at the death and you can clean up with a monster odds-on hedge in play! Oh, and pray that your internet doesn’t go on the blink during the race!!

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden 

Lord Condi – Entered for Market Rasen (July 27)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier in Love

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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