BOZmail – 26th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY JANUARY 26th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-40 DONCASTER

More January woe as my prediction that Magic of Light might get outspeeded proved correct and the mistake of course that I didn’t have the foresight to lay her because of that. The To follow list blinded me and I shan’t let it do so here as I attempt to lay a To Follow horse as I should have yesterday. Let’s hope Murphys Law doesn’t strike and the one I back loses and the one I lay wins! Being January, I don’t rule it out. Trainers use January as find out time which makes things that more difficult again. On top of the weather. What I should have said yesterday was that at Even money, Magic of Light was starting to become lay material in such a competitive race. I backed at 7/4 and could have hedged out but I’ll confess to not having done so. A To Follow horse and trainer I believe in and the race she ran to be coming back at the end was creditable over that find out shorter distance. I decided to believe in them but obviously don’t get it right all the time. That’s 9 losers from last 14 now after the 8 in a row win streak to start the month/year. Officially a losing streak by LIM standards. You’ll note however that we still stand around 0.5point in plus (better if you’ve been scrupulously getting your best prices) and it is I think the one positive note that I’ve dropped just 1.4 points in that poor spell. Bank management and caution my greatest strengths especially when race-reading is not going so well. And I bring back knowledge and experience with me and was prepared for a testing month as I’ve been warning throughout. January and September the two months I have struggled with historically. November also in 2018 and all of them fundamentally change in the weather based – when form gets that bit skewed by the instability of weather patterns.

September is that because of end of summer but actually September 2018 was ok as the winter weather was considerably delayed last year and form didn’t really start getting skewed until November when many horses start of season runs were delayed to – due to the scarcity of rain.

Meteorology is the big factor that the day by day tipster has to learn and the hardest one I think. Forgive me if I ain’t quite mastered it yet. Take solace also from the fact that despite the score, this is on target for being the best January LIM yet if it stays in plus. I actually suspended it from publication in January last year because of previous two year scores but then showed a small plus in my dummy unpublished run hence the feeling that I had improved enough knowledge wise to run it this year. Just about justified at the moment. Six more days to go!!

Starting with this delicious race. And another LIM to savour along the lines that was sadly postponed at Hereford on Wednesday. Mares again. I came to this race initially with the thought I might have Lady Buttons as a weapons grade win pick suitable to start another staggered acca. She is that much of an admired To Follow horse who oozes class and tries every bit of the way for you. This is far from a weapons grade win for her though now I’ve looked. Several negatives including the need to give four pounds all round and 13lb to Chica Buena who is one of four others in the race that I admire. I do concentrate on mares as you may have gathered by now and already have Indian Opera on the To follow with Irish Roe,Indefatigable & Chica Buena all on the subs bench waiting to get on. Along with Happy Diva who made it back on following yesterday’s triumph.

Lady Buttons has 2 and a half lengths on Irish Roe over hurdles at level weights from Wetherby two races back. The 4lb brings them very close together if Irish Roe is forgiven LTO under welterweight. That is counter balanced by form figures at Doncaster which is Irish Roe’s track. Very dangerous opponent to Lady Buttons on these terms but not the most so I don’t think. Enough to make Lady B a lay at the respective prices though!

Indian Opera is our fascinating one. I said after that win for us at Musselburgh that she might have been running against rubbish but the runaway manner however was obviously enough to get her this find out entry. Way up in class but coming you’ll remember from the Zakharova bumper formline that I rate so highly. I expect another burn attempt from the front here and whilst a 35 length win won’t happen again, there is a chance they won’t catch her again. The times suggest it is a possibility. So she is value at around 20/1. So I think is Chica Buena at 13/2. She is a hold up horse who won three on the bounce, all in good times, and was not at all disgraced against elders and a strong Normal Norman in a handicap LTO and has enough at the weights to be fancied to hold form again over Irish Roe who was well beaten in that race. The jockey Brian Hughes is a further bonus as is the stable form. My main fancy in the race assuming she can catch Indian Opera! I’m that keen I may well also combine them in a small forecast.

Indefatigable is further cover on the lay with Listed form behind Posh Trish LTO and Paul Webber’s horse also has times to challenge Lady Buttons receiving 4lb. And the penultimate factor, if you don’t count the weather, is that Lady Buttons has to make do without usual jockey Adam Nicol who remains sidelined. Not that Tommy Dowson is any kind of poor sub and has been sitting well in Nicol’s absence for the Kirby stable. But Nicol’s absence was the first sign that Lady B wasn’t a weapons grade winner. The second was that I feel she may be on tryout here to see if hurdles or fences is her route to the festival. She’s entered in the OLBG and the Queen Mother and could be a candidate for either if she wins here. She may, but the odds are against her at the prices, mainly because of the potential of the opposition and the weight she must give them.

Recommendation:

0.7pt LAY on LADY BUTTONS (around 1/1)

0.2pt BACK on CHICA BUENA (around 13/2)

0.1pt BACK on INDIAN OPERA (around 20/1)

0.05pt FORECAST – CHICA BUENA to beat INDIAN OPERA

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 37/48 = 77.08% :   BACKS: 7/30 = 23.33%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.8 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

 

NH TO FOLLOW BETS on SATURDAY:

2-25 CHELTENHAM – FRODON – 0.15pt WIN @ 9/4

                                               VALTOR – 0.1pt WIN @11/2

The wind op has transformed Frodon but this is his biggest test against top sorts giving weight and last time he did distance, he was beaten by Gold Present. Has improved however since then and if he stays he has his favourite’s chance. Elegant Escape is better over further now and Terrefort was disappointing LTO and I favour Valtor over all of them if he’s been waved over by the magic Henderson wand as it looked LTO. That form has taken knocks from Jammin Master and Benatar but was a fast time nevertheless and he’s my idea of the winner in this race if he takes them from the front again which could expose any chinks in Frodon. Minella Rocco not out of it either though so not a race to go mental on.

Busy day with Dynamite Dollars a banker to start the next staggered acca (see below) and the small matter of the tennis final to start the day off. We’ll either be cured of the January blues or wallowing in them by the end of Saturday!

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS

 

0.35pt LAY KVITOVA @ 2.42 in the outrights

0.1pt BACK COLLINS @ 16.0 in the outrights – LOST

0.15pt BACK OSAKA @ 3.6 in the outrights

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DUE TO START AROUND 8-30am UK time. A must watch to start the day!

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 1)

 

1-30 DONCASTER – DYNAMITE DOLLARS – 0.5pt BACK

Only has to jump to win. As weapons grade as it comes in NH racing. Not likely to get much better than 1/4 but worth a shot on the exchanges to optimise as best you can.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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