BOZmail – 26th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 26th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

3-30 LEICESTER

Officially a mini-losing streak with getting it wrong again Monday and things are going against with Distingo stepping and falling and giving Joshua Moore no chance to prove my ground theories either way. Did look like the fav did it fine though and the market expected the win so The Boz has to take it on the chin and wind up the padlocks on the satchel another notch in the attempt to get out of February ahead.

No great confidence in anything Tuesday and with Le Richebourg – my festival nap – announced injured, it is undoubtedly an everything going wrong phase. My car blew up yesterday! One of those times when you are best off staying in bed! I head to Ireland though on Saturday and am looking forward to the change of scene and the chance to get some pre-Festival (and pre-Brexit !) whiffs. Just a case of toughing it out ‘til then!

Chosen this Novices Handicap Chase race at Leicester and will simply play small oppose the fav. Am writing before tissue is out although they look likely to make Master Work head of the market. Got my negatives on him with the Hobbs yard far from firing and this fellow lumping a fair bit of lead on a Chase debut, effectively handicapped on his hurdling successes and being asked to take a short price blind with no idea how effective his jumping will be. Usually happy to take that on no problem. Certainly rarely keen to back until racecourse proof of jumping ability is assured. No sign of Richard Johnson cancelling his day off to ride either although perhaps nothing to be read into that as O’Brien is usual jockey.

Boagrius main market rival and negatives for him too with penalty for win LTO and rise in class. Ground also bit quick and giving weight to all but it has to be said his attitude in victory was good and we saw Monday how horses in form and from stables firing can overcome negatives at this time of year. Current form has extra resonance.

So only keen to oppose him if dead short fav.All is Good would be a lay on a line through Railroad Junkie who we got beat last week. If a short price, I could be tempted to lay him but is second time after a wind op and that is always dodgy so on balance I’ll stick to opposing the inexperienced Hobbs horse if possible.

Likely winner? Well, I’d say value lay with Windspiel on LTO at the course and with Ms Frost still riding out of her skin. Light weight gives serious chance but in general the top two look to have the class so I’m happy just to oppose the market fav.

Prices just appeared so,

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on  MASTER WORK (around 3.0)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 52/74 = 70.27% :   BACKS: 11/49 = 22.44%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.9375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC – Entered for Wincanton (Feb 27)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Parlour Maid

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

 

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

 

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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