BOZmail 26th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 26th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.022 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.5541 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Wednesday play

2-35 SOUTHWELL

Good job I didn’t play that 2-30 Lingfield! Very muddling and Believe in Love drifted like a bargepole but should have won it in the end. Backing or laying that I might have wet myself!

Back to NH action proper on Wednesday (no entry for Lieutenant Rocco though so playing out days before the festival a tad on the turf for a week or so). I am therefore sticking around on the all weather and have selected Brooklyn Boy as one to take on at short odds raised in class and heaved up the weights as he is. Ivan Furtado has made a new horse out of this fella but he’s 21lb up the ratings since hacking up in a bad race here just 12 days ago. Heavily backed fav that day, the stable knew they had a horse in the wrong race based on what they were seeing at home. Quick out the gates and strong front running. He backed the win up at Lingfield last week finishing strongly again but being pushed at the turn in by a selling plater called Dream Magic who finished only 2 lengths adrift. Getting 5lb from the second as well so not as good a win as it looks. Another bad race and up in grade and against more seasoned stronger opposition here including one of our 2020 heroes so far – Tigray. He’ll give him a test having won better races than Brooklyn Boy in his time. Tigray still carrying the penalty he earned by winning for us however and doesn’t top my possible winners list in this. I prefer Gaye Kelleway’s dark horse Mukha Magic who has never run on the surface before but is handled by a shrewdie in Gaye who sports eyeshields on him after he was noted staying on strongly LTO in only his second all weather start at Chelmsford. If he acts on the surface, he has strong claims off the same mark under a strong claiming rider but more proven chance goes to Twpsyn (no idea how you pronounce that!) who has won here before and earned his penalty LTO in a much better race at Kempton clocking a particularly impressive time on the slower ground which also bodes well having done quicker time here in the past too. Brooklyn Boy has to give 10lb when including Gina Mangan’s claim and that’s quite a hunk to consider on top of the 21lb he’s been shifted up since he won here last. Jason Hart may be worth that extra seven pound he gets from Gina Mangan of course but this is a track where weight tells in staying races (simply because it is harder to quicken here at the death) as we saw in Monday’s race. Give me the lighter weight every time.

The race has a similar feel to the one we bet in on Monday where the front two were both LTO winners but the betting smashed into one over the other and got it wrong. They were joint favs in my eyes as are the two here and yet one is 4/7 and the other 15/2. You know what to do!

Star Ascending was my original fancy as an outsider in this. A real AW stalwart with 11 wins to his name but similar profile to Scrafton in that he may be on the decline now and times at his peak in any case don’t match what this younger crowd are clocking. LIM cover though in the event of the front four misfiring.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on BROOKLYN BOY ( around 1.6 : happy to lay at larger if necessary)

0.1pt BACK on TWPSYN

0.05pt BACK on MUKHA MAGIC 

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 12/18 = 66.66%  Backs: 3/12 = 25%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

19th:   +0.147 (+0.804) Lay @ 1.44 

20th:   -0.34 (+0.464) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 4.4

21st:   +0.047 (+0.511) Lay @ 3.3 : Back @ 10.0

22nd:  +0.54 (+1.051) Lay NOT MATCHED : Back @ 12.0

23rd:   -0.15 (+0.901) Back @ 2.25

24th:   +0.121 (+1.022) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 21.0

25th:   NO BET DAY

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11 & 12) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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