BOZmail – 26th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 26th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: BOXING DAY PLAY

2-30 KEMPTON

You might think I’m raving bonkers but I see a possible way of getting the ‘invincible’ Buveur D’air beaten. Funny game because after the Fighting Fifth, like most, I formed the opinion he was a cert to retain his Champion Hurdle crown. Annihilated Samcro. Seriously annihilated him. With a wind op and on his preferred boggy ground. It may have been a flattering to the eye performance because of those two facts. Not saying he isn’t a worthy champion nor am I necessarily changing my mind about him retaining his crown. On soft ground, he will be a cert.

What I see here now though by virtue of wily old Henderson and his subtle ways, is that the maestro thinks he might be double handed. He has Buveur D’air who’ll beat all on soft ground and maybe my old mucker Verdana Blue – his gently nursed along mare – suddenly showing surprisingly improved form and speed. And who only acts on goodish ground. Flopped on soft. Actually not showed absolute best in big fields either. Finds traffic trouble. Did it at the Festival that first year staying on sensationally to finish fourth after getting blocked in run mid race. Likewise in the 18 runner this year where she was hot fav. Around that, a Grade 2 win at Wincanton. Small field. Where I clocked Henderson with that surprised Cheshire Cat grin he gets when something happens on the racecourse that he suspected as possible occurs. And his ‘baby’ has improved again. Took her to a Listed Race on the flat after that where she finished 2nd. At Kempton. She has speed. On her ground. And we don’t know if Buveur D’air can cope with speed on goodish ground. Campaigned almost exclusively on soft. His one win on good ground was over My Tent or Yours over the extended 2m 4f where stamina again became the forte. Not saying he ain’t quick. Obviously he is a mega slick jumper of hurdles and can quicken on soft ground. Lightening quick as at Newcastle. But not proven over all on better ground. And I suspect that Henderson suspects he has one that might beat him. Why else does Verdana Blue come here? Henderson wants to find out. My speed figures suggest he might be right and he has certainly been right before. Binocular and Punjabi? Look them up if you don’t remember. Both Champion hurdle winners. Both won when the other one was the talking horse fav. Binocular getting beat in the 2009 Champion was what first crystalised for me how Henderson works. The mind he has. His ability to play poker with his horses. Keep his cards close to his chest. We and the market are his target for the classic blind. Buveur is 2/7 and Verdana is 15/2. My speed figures favour Verdana on good or good to soft ground. Her usual jockey Jerry McGrath is banished to Market Rasen to ride two undeveloped newbies. Nico is up. Classic Henderson for me.

Two possible negatives to my theory. Rain is forecast for midday through til two o’clock Wednesday at Kempton. The ground is good to soft. If that rain is heavy, could knacker Verdana’s chance and play right into Buveur. Keep an eye on that. The other is that Henderson can’t be sure Verdana is good enough. He’ll have gallop clocks but the racecourse is another ballpark.

But I’ve seen it often enough – that innocent shrug when his lesser fancied one hoses in as Valtor did on Saturday (on my to follow list now) and underneath the bluster – the Cheshire cat grin. The wolfish glee. He knew. Or at least he suspected it highly possible. And had it right off at the odds.

 

I could be wrong. Or as the great John Lydon said in his classic PIL creation RISE,

 

I could be right.

 

Recommendation:

1pt LAY on BUVEUR D’AIR

0.25pt BACK on VERDANA BLUE

(discretionary cancelling of the play if the heavy rains appear before the race)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 17.5/23 = 76.08% :   BACKS: 1/15 = 6.66%

 

**************************************************************************************************

THE TRADITIONAL BOXING DAY BOZMAIL TREBLE:

 

2-20 Leopardstown – VOIX DU REVE

2-30 Kempton – VERDANA BLUE

3-05 Kempton – WAITING PATIENTLY

0.1pt WIN TREBLE and merry blooming Xmas if this comes in!!

 

Voix Du Reve is my LIM second best if Verdana is aborted because of rain. If they both go, the Mullins thing goes in this bet as Mengli Khan may be as good as they say but again, my figures say Voix Du Reve can have him. La Bague au Roi (a serious BOZ to follow mare) is thus missed off this bet and off the sheet for the day as I consider Santini a bridge too far for her. Of course, I could be wrong on that too but she has struggled in the past when moved up to Grade 1. A subs bench player however if any of the above become non runners.

 

*************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Waiting Patiently on the exchanges at 6.2 after King George entry confirmed today. I place my 0.1pt at that price now as the second leg of acca number two.

 

This is why I am in racing. A classic renewal of the King George and lots of top class imponderables. And the presence of the possible next superstar. Still unproven yet at this level but I won’t have him beat. Might Bite to beat but we can have him. I’d actually love to see Coneygree turn the clock back and might have a sentimental saver on him. Could jump them to submission at his best but no Cheltenham hill here. And others could run past on the run in. WP could cream them all. Here’s hoping it goes to plan for Ruth and Malcolm (RIP).

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *