BOZmail 26th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY DECEMBER 26th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 124/179 = 69.27%  Backs : 35/113 = 30.97%

12-40 KEMPTON

We take Third Time Lucki on again here as looks short after the form of the For Pleasure defeat hasn’t worked out so well. None of those behind has shone since.

I don’t expect Harry Skelton to lay so far back this time and it requires Flic ou Voyou to prove stouter than he has sometimes been in the past to stay in front but I’m still of the opinion he’s an improved horse this year and his times and ratings for this do certainly give hope. He can be forgiven his last effort which in any case comes out well in the context and he did give the second last a belt which cost any chance of winning. Form of that race has worked out well since with Llandinabo Lad an undoubted top notcher.

The value undoubtedly lies in opposing the Skelton shortie and there is LIM cover in the two coming back after the break in On To Victory who has solid flat speed and form and the beautifully named Go Sacre Go who is bred in the purple on the Sprinter Sacre line and could be a serious dark horse for the future.

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on THIRD TIME LUCKI (around 2.4)

0.1pt BACK on FLIC OU VOYOU (around 5.5)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount – Entered for Wetherby (Dec 27)

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf – Entered for Kempton (Dec 27)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar RoseEntered for  Cheltenham (Mar 19)

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered for Wetherby (Dec 27)

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Kempton (Dec 26) & Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

Shang Tang – Entered for Wincanton (Dec 26)

Snow Leopardess Entered for Wetherby (Dec 26) & Kempton (Dec 27)

Dusart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered at Wetherby (Dec 27)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Kempton (Dec 26) & Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Allart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 18)

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on BOXING DAY:

1-50 KEMPTON – SHAN BLUE @ 15/8 – 0.5pt BACK

2-05 WETHERBY – SNOW LEOPARDESS @ 9/2 – 0.25pt BACK

2-25 KEMPTON – FLORESSA @ 27/1 – 0.2pt BACK

2-45 WINCANTON – SHANG TANG @ 10/3 – 0.2pt BACK

Get the best prices that you can and hedge accordingly and/or when preferential odds are on offer:

All four are the sort of mega competitive Boxing Day fare sort of races – even more so this year with less fixtures and ‘squeezed’ framing and I can probably come up with more reasons for each not prevailing than I can for them all coming in. Tradition to do the Boxing Day acca however and they are also all four strong to follow candidates who are high on my being impressed by list so you never know! 0.01pt acca for me from the accumulator bank.

Trading undoubtedly the way to go for the serious stuff however and usual rules of take the prices high in advance and hedge before the off leaving yourself some leeway for AT THE DEATH hedges if they are in there at the finish. I may go 50% hedge only before the off on Shan Blue and Snow Leopardess whose form is bound together anyways so that if Shan Blue does well, that is a big boost for Snow Leopardess. Both are up in class but look potential top drawer sorts and Shan Blue is short price for the chance really but held in such high regard and looked such a potential LTO and with the form already boosted by SL, must rate a possible to deliver at the top table. Snow Leopardess gets bottom weight and will find this harder than LTO but so impressive in that win how she survived a mega horlicks and then set to reeling in the leader. Big future for her whatever happens here. LTO form has been franked.

Shang Tang has to overcome a weight pull for LTO with Southfield Harvest but I don’t rule that out. Like all four of these, on an undoubted large upward improvement curve so that Floressa dumping the seemingly untouchable Epitante is also not beyond the bounds. Very interesting that McGrath keeps the ride despite De Boinville being at the meeting and never underestimate a Henderson second string. They have a huge historical record of coming good and this looks in that league with McGrath kept on board to keep the price out. Nearly made it to LIM play of the day and if it comes good of course, it should have. My doubt is only that Epitante – as usual – also gets the Mares allowance. Seems absurd to me that a champion hurdler should still be able to claim but she has undoubtedly been helped in keeping her unbeatable status because of it.

This is a real chance for traders to practice their skills at the top table and should be exciting watching for all of us whatever the outcomes. Fingers crossed that it delivers! 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

20th:     -0.278   (+0.7186) Lay @ 2.52 : Back @ 4.9

21st:     NON RUNNER

22nd:    -0.162   (+0.5566) Lays @ 2.9 & 2.52 : Backs @ 6.4 & 9.2

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +56.4586points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.9274 points (+12.9274 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 53.4817 points (+45.4817 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1985 points (-0.8015 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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