BOZmail – 26th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

greeting
Merry Xmas

THURSDAY DECEMBER 26th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +18.0652 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +69.925 points

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LESS IS MORE: BOXING DAY PLAY

1-55 KEMPTON

Black Op is the Boxing Day Nap of the four BOZmail to follow runners although he finds himself in a mega competitive race as you would expect on the day. The two Paul Nicholls runners Master Tommytucker and Danny Whizzbang are both closely matched on the book and are both possibles and good LIM cover for a lay on the Tizzard horse Slate House who does come out slightly worst of the four on my figures (Black Op marginally the best) albeit that he is the one most proven over the distance. Not however in an especially fast time. All the other three have greater scope for improvement over the distance.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on SLATE HOUSE (around 3.8 : upper value parameter 4.2)

0.1pt BACK on BLACK OP (around 4.0 or better)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 216/323 = 66.87% :   BACKS: 57/215 = 26.51%

BOXING DAY HORSES TO FOLLOW EACH WAY TREBLE:

1-25 WINCANTON – JATILUWIH @ 3/1

2-30 KEMPTON – VERDANA BLUE @ 9/2

3-05 KEMPTON – LOSTINTRANSLATION @ 15/8

0.25pt EACH WAY

Unlike me to go each way but the BOXING DAY TREBLE is a BOZmail tradition last landed in 2017 and actually missed out in 2018 due to lack of contenders. All big guns in 2019 but all with an each way chance rather than a winning chance after in depth race reads. Jatiluwih has weight to carry and is unproven on heavy ground but has been a serious hardy campaigner already who finds a way to win whatever so no surprise to see a big run there. Verdana Blue has a great chance of back to back Xmas hurdles providing the ground dries a touch and is officially Good to Soft or Good. If it remains Soft, replace her with Black Op as Verdana simply don’t like it soft. Blunts her speed. Stable run three and have jocked up expecting the soft ground which as I say, causes us to drop her in favour of Black Op. Good price at 4/1 though if there is a chance of better ground. Weather forecast not clear either way. Drying weather possible on Xmas Day.

The King George is a humdinger and Lostintranslation could swing it on class now if it is an attritional race although could also finish third on past times if it is a speed test and Cyrname will certainly set out to make it that. Clan Des Obeaux second in if that transpires but the Nicholls yard not overly firing and there is hope for LIT if he jumps to optimum under a canny waiting ride from Robby. The question is will Cyrname stay? If he does, second is probably best we can hope for. Tizzard will be looking more for a big run with LIT’s eyes set on the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Course and distance there will suit him more and I fancy him more for that. The Betfair Million however is on and I certainly expect Tizzard’s yard to be flat out trying to win this.

Traders amongst you may prefer to forego the each way treble attempt and attack the more normal singles trades (although you can of course combine the two to effect if it pleases) and thus the usual back at the best price you can get and hedge when you are offered preferential odds either before the off or in running. All four of today’s candidates should be easy to show trading singles profit thereon.

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

9th:    -0.2275(+0.1905) Lay @ 1.91

10th:   +0.245 (+0.4355) Lay @3.35

11th:    +0.047 (+0.4825) Lay @ 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

12th:    NON RUNNER

13th:    +0.294 (+0.7765) Lay @ 2.86

14th:    +0.147 (+0.9235) Lay @ 1.8

15th:    +0.4555 (+1.379) Lay @ 2.44 : Back @ 3.25

16th:    +0.294 (+1.673) Lay @ 4.0

17th:    +0.196 (+1.869)  Lay @ 2.88

18th:    +0.096 (+1.965) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 9.0

19th:    RACE ABANDONED

20th:     -0.33 (+1.635) Backs @ 2.02 & 12.0

21st:     +0.096 (+1.731) Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 11.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Kaizer* 

Tea Clipper* 

Nube Negra – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 10)

Black Op – Entered for RSA,NOVICES & Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Kempton (Dec 27),Doncaster (Dec 29) & Arkle (Mar 10)

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Leicester ( Dec 28)

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill* – Entered forNewbury (Dec 28)+Supreme Novices,Ballymore & Albert Bart 

Nordano – Entered for Chepstow (Dec 27)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa* 

Vinndication –Entered for Cheltenham Gold Cup

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Ryanair & Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Cat Tiger – Entered for Chepstow (Dec 27)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10)

Magic of Light

Defi Sacre – Entered for Newbury (Dec 28) & Kelso (Dec 29)

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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