BOZmail – 26th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY ONE:

MONDAY AUGUST 26th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +7.1952 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

US OPEN FIRST ROUND MATCH:

Johanna Konta v Daria Kasatkina

That’s me and the horses done for a while. They smashed into Harry Love like he couldn’t get beat. Every tipster put him up. He finished fourth but even with two against, I couldn’t back the winner. Was a lay only day and been that kind of month I’m afraid. Winning but not that well! Better than losing but time for a break now as the US Open starts on Monday. Shall of course keep an eye on the horses and shout if I see a pearler but will allow a bit of September form turnaround to happen before coming back in on the daily LIM on September 6th. Profit protection time.

Meantime a crack at what I successfully managed at the end of the miserable May month when a couple of French Open LIMs boosted the score somewhat.

The US Open isn’t always my favourite of the slams but I have had a few good years there and I do feel up for it this year with a good sense of who’s hot and who’s not. I’ll give it these first four days before I go to Ireland to see how we go and keep up an intermittent service whilst I’m away dependent on how we go with the Wifi. Every day if the technology allows. Feel upbeat about the outrights portfolio and Swiatek and Kenin get underway on Monday both having winnable looks to their games on paper although Coco Vandeweghe is assessed only on current form. Should she come back to top form, she could prove a thorn for Kenin.

My favs treble and a couple of value against the book trades to play below. Couldn’t find a start to the staggered acca so that waits another day or two but this LIM comes close. Seriously tough start for the Brit who has been a little below par ever since the surprise over achieve on the clay season. Did ok at Wimbledon but not much since and remains for me that one dimensional sort of player who when the A game is out of kilter, is not a cert against anybody. Not my book favourite in this as the Russian has a 2-1 head to head score winning both their latest two match ups. All were on what would traditionally be Konta’s better hard surface but you’ll remember that surface bias is undergoing some rethink at the moment as a lot of the top level are working on their game on the weaker surface. Kasatkina is one of those and her recent form on hard court shows wins over Strycova,Kerber and Buzarnescu and defeats only to top flight Keys,Svitolina and Andreescu.

Conversely, since her disappointing Wimbledon QF defeat to Strycova (what another opportunity missed that was), Konta has notched just losses to Peterson and Yastremska playing dully against both.

Of course she could come out here storming and her power game ought to test the Russian whose ranking is actually as low as 42 at the moment. Flushing Meadows has never really grabbed Johanna however. End of a long season? I think she is pretty vulnerable here and not my idea of a 1.67 shot. I’d want odds against really given the back score. 

So the value lies in laying the Brit. Sorry Jo.

Recommendations:

0.4pt LAY on JOHANNA KONTA (around 1.67 : no greater than 1.9)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

24th:          NON RUNNER

25th:          +0.045 (+1.1875) Lay @ 1.89 : Backs @ 20.0 & 6.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 150/224 = 66.96% :   BACKS: 44/154 = 28.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

AUGUST BANK HOLIDAY TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES:

SATURDAY 24th: 5-20 YORK – JAMES WATT @ 33/1 – 0.1pt (Backed@90.0 : Hedged before the off @ 80.0 = zero P/L)

SUNDAY 25th: 4-10 BADEN BADEN – WALDPFAD @ 11/10 – 0.5pt (2nd : No hedge possible)

MONDAY 26th: 4-50 EPSOM – LIGHT UP OUR STARS @ 7/2 – 0.1pt

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

 Acca number 18: 

Will shout as the final staggered acca starter emerges.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK at 200/1

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 67.0  – 0.25pt LAY @30.0

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

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US OPEN FIRST DAY FAV TREBLE:

Catherine McNally to beat Timea Bacsinszky @ 1.54

Angelique Kerber to beat Krystina Mladenovic @ 1.3

Maria Sakkari to beat Camila Giorgi @ 1.57

                          Composite odds around 3.1431 : Recommended Stake = 0.5pt

Giorgi is fresh from the Bronx final defeat so I expect her mojo to be low and all three are clear back score plusses. McNally will need only to assert her talent and guard against the wobble. Kerber has to want it. If she does, she wins on this surface with Mladenovic only really big on clay.

US OPEN FIRST DAY VALUE AGAINST THE BOOK TRADES:  

Lin Zhu to beat Xi Wang @ 2.56

Eugenie Bouchard to beat Anastasia Sevastova @ 4.6

Bouchard is a monster price if you go back 3-5 years when she was clear top ten and SF at Wimbledon. Beat Sevastova in that period (2016) in their only match up on hardcourt. Sevastova prefers grass and clay and has one win on each in the Bouchard struggle years since. She still shows occasional flashes of her old self and is only 25 so time for the comeback overdue really now. Sevastova the top flight player of the two now currently ranked 12. Could be a ping pong/yoyo trade match if Bouchard starts and/or plays well. Not impossible on current form and preferred surface. Serious longshot in tennis terms whereas the other is a misprice as far as I can tell. 

Even on ratings. Wang is the newbie 18 year old with talent up against colleague with much more experience and a 2-0 back score plus. Also been in topform in the lead up making final at Lindisville and going deep at the Bronx. Very good value at 2.56.

0.25pt BACK start on each. Go green when presented and be ready to ping pong if the yoyo starts!

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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