BOZmail 26th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 26th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.1919 points (+2.1919 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.3911 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.6787 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 45/59 = 76.27%  Backs : 8/29 = 27.58%

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LESS IS MORE

2-00 MUSSELBURGH

And straight back on the bike I am! Always the best way! Well done if you managed the big prices. Some 18.0 matched which was adjusted down to 12.5 after the declared non runners but still very tasty if you managed it and well done if you did.

I was a bit late and mine got skewed down to 9.05 but I’ll take that and I daresay there will have been a few of you who when they saw the change in weather and conditions and the way jockey change Sean Bowen lined up for the race at a starting price of 9/4 (only horse in the race they were backing) joined me in some extra betting in running. I’d watched Brodie Hampson in the race before scoot a horse home from in front off the Lady Bowes formline – in at 18/1 and I clicked into a mode that might be my main professional betting mode these days. Namely my bottomless bog ground betting in running approach. When you see it’s got bottomless because Storm Julie (or whichever) has just blown in, you look for the horse in running that’s in front with a high knee action and you plough in. Trade it as it leads or just stick with it. Front runners who like the conditions are desperately hard to pass at such times and there are a few tracks where this approach works fantastically well. Bangor is one of them. Ffos Las another. And Chepstow. Now, I think, maybe it’s a Welsh thing!

And Scottish because that Lady Bowes formline I mentioned relates to Ayr where Lady Bowes (who likes Soft rather than Heavy ground) struggled in behind three that revelled in the heavy. Hampson’s mount Timetoroe was third that day and they rode at Bangor like they knew she was in ideal conditions. Richards’ She’s a Rocca was the winner that day and with both Lady B and Timetoroe advertising that formline now, all go on to the to follow list (Baby Jane and Charm Offensive also). That is a bumper race of significance. Keep it quiet. We are going to make winter sheckels from that knowledge. A winter that, going on Oscar Nomination’s efforts at Bangor on Tuesday, has already begun!

So The BOZmail breathes back into life after that bruising result on Monday and I seek to push on again as planned for an attempt at making August a respectable return month. But a brief lull on Wednesday with no jump racing scheduled. I’ve found us a small trade race play on the flat. We are back at Sedgefield on Thursday and that’ll be more occasion to play the ‘Bottomless Bog Ground Betting In running’ approach. Awful British weather is back! Happy Days! 

I’m taking one of my few flat to follow spots of late and playing it here on LIM on Wednesday. Custard is an old mate who owes me nowt and a serious standing dish at Southwell where he likes that peculiar surface and how it slows everything down to make him look fast! He ought to be ok at Musselburgh – one of the many tracks we might not see around in the new normal so I hear – with some wet ground and a bit of all weather too and looked seriously primed after a wind op to go on and show NTO when we saw him re-appear after lockdown at Newcastle on the fibresand. Races off a turf mark of 65 here where his AW weather winning mark is 81 so on paper he could sluice in if he handles the surface and Graham Lee is booked which bodes well. Lee rode his last victory after he was traditionally Joe Fanning and Ben Curtis’ ride and the former is on the danger in the race here. The beautifully named Bibbidibobbidiboo.

I haven’t swept the race and will be playing as trade myself taking biggest and best price I can get hedging half before the off to best advantage I can manage and saving 50% for an in running hedge in the hope he makes it to the last half furlong with every chance. That’s assuming the portents and weather don’t make it a totally different market/race in the ten minutes before the off (as happened Tuesday) where I might reserve the right to go green before the off if the offer is irresistible!

Recommendation: 0.25pt BACK on CUSTARD THE DRAGON (around 11.0 or best price you can get to be hedged as appropriate when preferential offer occurs either in segments or as a whole)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

24th:     -0.65   (+0.9328) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 16.0

25th:    +0.4017 (+1.3345) Back @ 9.05

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Lingfield (Aug 27) & Goodwood (Aug 29)

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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