BOZmail 25th SPETEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 24th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +16.9204 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.4141 points (+5.4141 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 20.4918 points (+12.4918 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 80/113 = 70.79%  Backs : 21/68 = 30.88%

3-45 UTTOXETER

I think that probably was indeed a very good race we just watched at Perth and I stand by Redford Road being likely to come out as the quality long term chaser. Jumped well enough and going to be better over three miles. But only third so the two that finished in front look smart as well and they make the to follow also given that Saglawy was a top hurdler and he was out with the washing when he fell and was the one in the race with a recent run under his belt. Carroll’s Milan was backed and ran unexpectedly well.

So the optimism I’ve been trying to generate the past few days as we eek our way gently out of September does look justified. The better horses are starting to arrive as they do on the cusp of a new NH season and this mares handicap at Uttoxeter for Friday has also been a joy to study. Comparative to all the shit of the past six months in any case!

There is still some September guesswork in it with the reappearance after layoff of Black Tulip and Prettylittlething with both given a bit of a chance on paper with Prettylittlething under a jockey I’ve never heard of but capable of winning after long lay off as she did for us last year when beating Midnight Folie at big odds. I consider her the value in this with Takingitallin the other I would have against the field to take advantage of the penalty the front two must carry. Of them I slightly prefer Absolute Jaffa over Simply Loveleh on times and did consider a double lay but it is still September and the profit is nimbly ticking forward so on balance I refrain from risk taking and play simply for more cautious value. Admiral’s Sunset not out of it as further LIM cover.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SIMPLY LOVELEH (around 3.0 but a tad shorter if you can get it)

0.05pt BACK on PRETTYLITTLETHING

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

24th: +0.147 (+0.6671) Lay @ 3.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Hiconic – Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius -Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAY on THURSDAY:

2-50 PERTH – CHECK MY PULSE @ 5/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Backed @ 10.5 : hedged 0.4pts @ 3.8 : P/L = +0.245pts 

Well done if you got some of the 12.0 briefly available last night. I did not expect that sort of market and I changed my plan to greening out when a huge run came on Menzies’ horse and I got as low as 3.8. I did dither because that sort of gamble usually suggests stable confidence and concerted form study had suggested a very competitive race with Skelton and Twiston Davies also having talking horses therein and our boy having to give weight to them all. So in the end I took the value of between 0.2pt and 0.3pt profit either way over the possible 1pt+ profit if I gambled on a free bet win. The cautious trader won the day as I had decided it was a trade play ultimately. Wasn’t that confident myself of a win. And now I’ve seen the race, I called correct. Market did come for all the others again before the off and we were back out to 7.2 toward the off. That was value as a back price but he didn’t run as I’d hoped really and showed the negative of the weight carry to the extent that he goes off the to follow now whilst that mark looks in need of coming down before he’ll win again. 

With the racing about to start getting proper competitive now, he looks like he was a summer jump candidate only. Done his bit for us though. No complaints on that score! 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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