BOZmail – 25th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 25th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-40 PERTH

Sadly the vagaries of September LIM tipping are not over yet as the one time I oppose the only Novice Chaser in the race is the time that chaser wins. You could see the chances of his getting beat alright in the way that one who did jump ok came at him at the end to just fail. It was about the jumping however and easy to see with hindsight and Tuesday’s observation of the market, where the Twister horse was smashed off the planet, that traditional lay the fav was the way to go once our back fancy was pulled out. Twistys didn’t jump. The experienced one did and hopefully you exercised BOZmail rule number 4 and limited the damage done by the plunge on Twisty that was prophesized as a likely market folly – based on the overused Twisty time of year angle – and got your lay on early. I managed just under two to one after Wencelaus was withdrawn so I live to fight another day. More example of why we never take SPs on a lay!! 

Lots more runners around is another of the vagaries of late September early October LIM and just this race really to go at again Wednesday (alongside a couple of extremely dodgy looking AW flat races!) and I try my hardest to race read and stick to the value principles whilst the main advice is the Three Cs. Caution,Caution and Caution and do everything in your power not to give back what we hardearn won/recovered last week. You may look back to the beginning of the month when I mentioned that the really cautious may want to sit September out. Thought after Saturday last week that I had cast my own wisdom aside but it may yet come back to haunt me as I soldier on with an increasingly gloomy heart. Nah, just need another Sizing Platinum. Sadly I don’t see him at Perth on Wednesday where best I can muster is a lay only again and special emphasis on Rule number 4 as always.

Twisty at the forefront again with his thrice winning chaser Double Court who looks worthy of a lay again up against our form franked Lucky Robin who beat Isaac Wander LTO in a display of much improved jumping. Times and weights and ratings and pretty much everything points to Lucky Robin and if that’s where the value lies, that is where I go although inclement weather brings both Le Frank and Instingtive into the equation whilst Go West Young Man would have a fine chance if recovering 2018 summer jumping form. Lots of the doubt September sows in my advice again I’m afraid but favour the brave (as opposed to stoop to the stupid) is the way fortune ultimately leans so with caution, I step once more into the fray.

P.s. Absolutely belted down in the North of England all day and expect heavyish ground at Perth tomorrow which may favour Instingtive most. No change to the bet however as I’ve just added a fourth C!

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on DOUBLE COURT (around 2.8  : no greater than 3.2 )

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

19th:    +1.595 (+0.4225) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 10.0

20th:    +0.245 (+0.6675) Lay @ 2.38

21st:     +0.527(+1.1945) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 4.8

22nd:    -0.2 (+0.9945) Back @ 4.0

23rd:     NO PLAY DAY

24th:     -0.392 (+0.6025) Lay @ 2.96

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 162/248 = 65.32% :   BACKS: 48/168 = 28.57%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.96 points. 

Will shout as and when new starter emerges.      

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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