BOZmail – 25th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY OCTOBER 25th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.236 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-35 CHELTENHAM

Eight winning LIM days in a row and seven lays in a row (bringing my lay SR back over 66% at last – where it needs to be!) brings us into the first proper horse race of the new NH season in fine fettle. Now to see if I can get this tricky little monkey right!

Absolute cracker of a contest with all four runners possible stars of the future chase game. Question of whether we stick to that premise of opposing those on their chase debut. Always my instinct and if we are confident here, it’s a terrific chance to play a market because the two with chase experience are priced as serious outsiders. The hurdler with most potential is undoubtedly Al Dancer and Twisty is on his home course and does have a terrific record of preparing his top horses to excel here. He also holds Getaway Trump on Ascot hurdle form although that sinuously named beast (who had the foresight to know all the world would be hollering that moniker at the end of 2019??!!) did continue improving thereafter and the Sandown win holds up really well formwise with the 4th and 5th in that race coming out to win black type races thereafter. Cripes! Taken literally that makes Getaway Trump a horse to match the belligerence of his name! He has to prove he likes chasing as well though. Very difficult to pick between the two and thus I am more inclined to either lay both or neither!

The reason of course is that we have one of our boys running for us at 16/1! Caius Marcius has to give 8lb because he’s won so many chases over the summer and to be sure, Mickey Mouse chases compared to this, but the price is a stonker and he does have black type hurdle form himself. So the price is a combination of the weight he has to give and the fact that he’s a Northerner and Northern horses can’t win at Cheltenham! My times say he can but I’ll confess the 8lb concession does mean both favs have to put in less than perfect rounds of jumping.

You’ll remember I came back off my holidays in May (where I lost many a board game in the company of my ultra competitive family!!) having heard in the pubs around Keswick that Caius Marcius was a horse I had to watch out for. Richards’ stable is the class of the North and Greystoke not far from Keswick (where we holidayed) nor from the South Cumbrian town I live in. I’ve heard it several more times since that this was a horse that would be taken to be tested at Cheltenham. Here he is. A resolute galloper and a tidy and experienced jumper. Could he spring the shock? Because of the prices and the way we stand, I’ll give him a go. We can lay both favs – who nearly cancel each other out (and if you work on your market watch you might get odds on the pair as they flip flop for favouritism) – and have the far from out of it Skelton horse running for us as well. It is that kind of trading race and because I’m more trader than gambler these days that’s the way I’ll play.I wish I could make a choice between the front two but it is basically down to which one makes the lesser jumping debut. I’ll take ‘em both on with he cock of the north – Caius Marcius to bring home the spoils. Happy days!

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on AL DANCER (around 2.0 :no greater than 2.4)

0.2pt LAY on GETAWAY TRUMP (around 2.4 : no greater than 2.6)

0.1pt BACK on CAIUS MARCIUS (around 17.0 or better)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 179/271 = 66.05% :   BACKS: 52/184 = 28.26%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

23rd:   +0.146 (+3.108) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 4.2

24th:   +0.196 (+3.304) Lay @ 4.3

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered at Cheltenham (Oct 26)

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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