BOZmail 25th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

SUNDAY OCTOBER 25th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +37.4735 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.8092 points (+7.8092 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 39.0498 points (+31.0498 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7635 points (-0.2365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 97/133 = 72.93%  Backs : 25/81 = 30.86%

NO BET

Had a good look on Sunday for the lucky thirteenth in the current LIM sequence but despite the success at taking Chase debutante Pileon on at Cheltenham, I’m not wild about opposing Adjali at Hexham and the Irish LIM qualifier at Galway is mighty trappy leaving just the likely three runner affair at Wincanton. Nicholls’ Worthy Farm does have the lay off to overcome and Harry Cobden goes to Aintree suggesting maybe they think he is not a good thing but the two taking him on are fragile looking sorts and whilst on another day I’d take a punt, I’ll pass this Sunday and make do with genuine Less Is More philosophy and just play the discipline of the Aintree trade (see below). Main reason is that I’ve just seen Lady Bowes’ jumps debut is an LIM qualifier on Monday with Nicholls and Gordon Elliot sending good ones to make the market. Dogs are barking round here and the ground looks to be coming right so I’ll wait on that as my lucky thirteenth!

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6 

23rd: NO BET

24th:  +0.049  (+2.0551) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 5.5

25th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie     

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Uncanaver

Ribble Valley

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE at Cheltenham on Saturday:

3-15 SIROBBIE @ 12/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 4th

Backed @ 18.0 : hedged 0.125pt @ 15.0 : P/L = +0.0247pts

Each way monkeys did better than me and but for a step at the notorious third last, he might have finished closer without ever really going like a winner. Traded at 10.0 in running so in play monkeys also did better than me but on an awkward weekend, with Lady Bowes’ hurdles debut waiting in the wings, I bottle my tickover profit and move on. Robbie does stay on the list I think. Ran well enough to inspire further profit from him. I’d like to see him targeted at a chase he can win.

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE at Aintree on Sunday:

3-42 CAIUS MARCIUS @ 9/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate as and when preferential odds are offered.

Been a while since this one won over hurdles and higher marked now and this a competitive race so although been knocking on the door and stable in good nick, I have him on the list as a chaser really so can’t get over enthused about this as a bet. Trade for me. Definite each way chance and good run expected so that makes for ideal trading environment.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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