BOZmail 25th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 25th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 112/157 = 71.33%  Backs : 31/98 = 31.63%

1-20 WETHERBY

Equus Dancer got a serious ride and I’m going to have start being more circumspect when taking Sean Bowen on. He lifts ‘em over like old AP used to do and it breaks the spirit of the opposition.

Aidan Coleman might be the class here too but his mount doesn’t look an odds on shot to me and although there isn’t much to go on with the recent form of the opposition, I’ll play the market because Bridget Andrews rode some smart races at Ascot on Saturday and is starting to become a serious talent. The Skelton horse, like the Irish raider, ran in black type LTO, and whilst neither did much, means their connections have aspirations about the horses and Born By The Sea is actually a real outsider of three price. Hard to resist.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on GEORDIE BEE (around 1.9)

0.05pt BACK on BORN BY THE SEA (around 8.5)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28)

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

First Flow

Get Your Own

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW on WEDNESDAY:

Giving Soaring Glory a swerve in the 1-50 at Wetherby. Looks a likely winner but at no kind of price. Watch only.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

22nd:  – 0.174  (+3.092) Lay @ 2.16

23rd:   +0.6566 (+3.7486) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 3.8

24th:   -0.318  (+3.4306) Lay @ 2.06

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +50.1158points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.3334 points (+11.3334 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.5529 points (+40.5529 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3785 points (-0.6215 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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